Written Thursday, May 6, 2010 (See, we were talking about the Euro zone troubles over a year ago!!!)
May has arrived, the United States economic recovery engine is chugging
along nicely. Retail outlook is decent, it is still down from last
year, there are signs of improvement. Nearly every industry sector is
reporting something rosy. While the US is looking good overall, the
negative news at the moment is focused heavily on the sovereign debt
issues facing particular member nations of the EU (e.g. Greece, Spain,
Portugal).
Retail Sales
For March and April, Internet
sales soared up 15.6%, Electronic sales were up 9.7%. Consumer
confidence for the same time period was up; however, Conference Board
business group's index remains below the level that's considered
healthy. Also noted that unemployment is still high. AAPL (Apple)
announced recently that they sold 1 million iPads already, you can bet
that it was part of the 9.7% of electronic sales.
Full Article on Retail:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retail-data-Consumers-took-a-apf-1861174646.html?x=0 (No longer available)
Tech
NFLX (Netflix)
AAPL (Apple)
BIDU (Baidu)
GOOG (Google)
Netflix
(NFLX) has rocketing stock, check it out on Google Finance or whatever
stock ticker you follow and you'll know why people have bandwagoned on
this hot stock. It has cooled with European debt issues at the fore
front of investors and with a current P/E of 45, one has to be cautious
for entry. NFLX has become "monster" stock status of the likes of GOOG,
AAPL and MSFT (Mircosoft) in terms of rapid growth.
The parent
company of Hollywood Video's, Movie Gallery has gone bankrupt for the
second time in three years, all thanks due to NFLX powerful business
prowess through mail, and being a "first-mover" in offering streaming
movies directly to customer to DVR providers.
Coinstar (CSTR)
operated Redbox's slightly won in Movie Gallery's demise, while
Blockbuster (BBI) has survived for another day, but the question is how
long?
Things to watch: NFLX is poised for future growth,
however, competition from Wal-Mart and Best Buy (WMT & BBY,
respectfully) are rolling out development of online movie streaming
content in the future which can cut into NFLX's business.
Montley Fool on Following Monster Stock Search:
Tomorrow's Monster Stock - Montley Fool
Apple...
Apple, what can be said more about them. They already sold 1 million
iPads since they officially announced it back in late january. It
finally broke for a vicious run from it's price barrier around $217 per
share to a whopping $272 per share around April 23rd. We pretty much
know the new iPhone is coming now via an Apple engineer who left it
about in a California bar that started "Applegate"... something we're
looking forward towards as time goes on.
Long on AAPL due to large cash position and strong customer loyalty.
Baidu
(BIDU) is something of a monster stock, although the price of riding
the stock requires about $700 for one share for their ADS (American
depositary shares) share. They also sell a Class A ordinary shares
(however, I haven't found the stock index for that one). Very soon
however, they recently announced that ADS is splitting 10 to 1,
effective May 10th. It should reflect this difference by dropping to
about $70 a share when this occurs.
If you don't know what BIDU
is, it is a Chinese search engine... and the only search engine in China
now since Google pulled out of China due to privacy breaches and
censorship issues. This stock wins due to no competition and a large
customer base of 1 billion people... with no US or Europe exposure, a
pure China play.
"Baidu has returned 78%, annually, since 2007.
Even in light of the downgrade by Credit Suisse, Baidu has risen 11% in
the past week. Sell-side analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish on
Baidu, with 17, or 71%, rating its shares "buy", six rating them "hold"
and one ranking them "sell." RBC(RY) offers a price target of $954,
leaving a potential 34% return. JPMorgan(JPM) predicts the stock will
climb to $850."
Credit Suisse predicts a 27% slide to $519 as the
lone one out. So watch BIDU's growth is attached to how fast it can
penetrate more areas of China for grabbing more users. Current
penetration for China for internet is 30% compared to US 70%.
As
I've said earlier, Google's pull out of China, it's stock price has not
recovered from it's level about $590-$600 to $520. Nobody's expecting a
swift recovery to that level until maybe end of the year if things go
well.
Hold-Buy BIDU, Neutral-Sell GOOG
10-For-1 Split from BIDU News:
Baidu is splitting stock 10 for 1. How about you Google?
BIDU Valuation Concerns News:
BIDU Valuation Concerns Article
European Trouble
It's
good to be short Euro as EU deals with Greece debt problems, and two
well-known analysts, Dennis Gartman, involved in the markets since 1974,
he publishes the "Gartman Letter" , which touch on the political,
economic, and social trends shaping the world's markets on a daily
basis. He frequents CNBC and Bloomberg business channels, and people
listen when he speaks.
"Yes. For all intents, I think the euro is
doomed. There were many who said they didn't think the euro would make
it past the first important recession. Well, this is really the first
important recession since the creation of the euro. And I've been
surprised it has lasted as long as it has. Honestly, I think the euro is
a doomed currency.
But these things take time to play out. The
euro will still be extant by Feb. 28. It will still be around by March
30. It'll probably still be around by the end of April, and the end of
this year, and it will probably still be here a year and a half, two
years from now. But I think these are terminal problems that the
monetary union and the political union are facing, and it's only a
matter of time before it ceases to exist. Will it happen overnight? No.
It will happen in a slow, very painful, long-standing, horribly
drawn-out, ugly affair." - Gartman
Gartman is short Euro and long
dollars (US, Canada, NZ, and Austraila), Japanese Yen, and Gold
(Purchased through Euros, sterling, yen, Swiss franc and so on)
Full Article of Dennis Gartman Interview:
The Euro is doomed - Dennis Gartman
To counterbalance Gartman's argument of doom-and-gloom, David Kotok of Cumberland Advisers said:
"We
do not expect the euro to fail as a currency and we do not expect the
ECB or the EU to dismember. This is true even if Greece defaults.
Would the United States dismember if Rhode Island defaulted on its
municipal bonds? We think not. Did the revelations about Robert Citron
and the Orange County California pool and bankruptcy dismember the
entire US Muni market? No. But it did create a terrific buying
opportunity when the market swooned and all Munis sold off for a few
weeks."
"Also, note that the crisis is strengthening the dollar
since it is now the default currency choice in the world. A stronger
dollar means any inflation pressures that the US economy may experience
are diminishing. The Fed knows this which is why it will remain on a
low interest rate program for the rest of this year."
Cumberland is also short on Euro as well, and long in USD.
Read
more:
David Kotok - Coming weakness will make Euro stronger
Also more: Eurozone Breakup = Mother of all finanical crisises - Business Insider
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Facebook Archive - Sky Isn't Falling... Interestingly Enough
Saturday, April 10, 2010
You can't help but wonder the year hasn't made people panic and riot in the streets. I have people talking "Meh, Obamacare is sink America and blah, blah, blah!!!" Or the talk of, "Oh the economic bailout is so horrible and we're all being part of China." Meanwhile, I think of one thing.
This is the sound of apathy... of inactive whining... of grumbling without really giving thought to what could have been.
It doesn't take an expert to put two and two together to see things aren't bad as people perceive them to be. Yes, the long term effects are questionable, but like all things of such big nature, only the history books and historians will judge the effects. We are by nature, creatures of looking for an easy way out. No matter what we say about, "Oh think of the future generations.", a lot of us are plain selfish, and why not for the name of economic stability and paying the bills.
Whatever you want to think President Obama and his policies, like any president I have my agreements and disagreements with them, his economic polices coupled with President Bush's actions in late 2008 have stopped potentially massive bleeding. People don't seem to understand the being the world's reserve currency (one of a few e.g Euro, Yen, Pound), the only currency worth of purchasing oil, and actually a few countries have adapted the dollar into the primer currency of their country, that the US dollar is a global currency. Logically, our dollars have to be printed daily, not only to feed our need for the medium of exchange, but for a majority of the world needs our dollars.
People scream or complain of "Geez, we're going into debt and printing a lot of dollars." I don't the amount of dollars that are circulating around in each country, but there has to a crapload of it moving about. Sure, debt management isn't one of America's fortes, but it seems that a nation can spend in one of two areas. Those two areas of general spending is domestic spending or foreign spending.
I can't seem to mention the huge cost of waging war that we outspent both countries net worth easily. People seem to lose focus that priority one of spending American dollars is spending it here at home for improving and maintaining what we have. Foreign spending is also good, just not in large amounts. Also seemingly forgotten is the economics of waging war is usually short-term and we benefit from something. Only in the caves people would stand behind the whole Iraq war on, "Oh we're kicking out a bad man.", which has been long proven to be about oil. Plus, Persian Gulf War 1991 proved that premise of basing 2003 Iraq War on it being largely false in the first place.
Obama isn't some crazy man, he's a shrewd, strategic planner. The economy has hit bottom and isn't sinking lower, even with all the crazy debt piling up. It's not unthinkable that his cabinet is pulling the right strings. I know I use to think the premise of thinking, "AH, LET IT FAIL!!!" No longer, failing companies I know is the true capitalist thinking, but it's really bad when you think about it because they got so big that it wouldn't just affect them but chain reaction beyond themselves.
Health insurance... it was needed. People are sometimes like a bunch of lemmings and can't figure out why when you have a sudden emergency and don't have insurance, you get fully billed. Yes, I've continued to say that it isn't perfect and I don't when any government legislation has been perfect.
We should be encouraged and actually forced to buy "catastrophic" coverage, but only that. It just sounds like buying minimum coverage for a car, but just for yourself. You're covering yourself from harm and paying up the butt for medical bills. Beyond catastrophic coverage, you can add on to build custom coverage with private companies or with *chuckles* Medicaid or Medicare. We all know how bad that system is... and that's that.
Think about it... relative good for the new year I think.
You can't help but wonder the year hasn't made people panic and riot in the streets. I have people talking "Meh, Obamacare is sink America and blah, blah, blah!!!" Or the talk of, "Oh the economic bailout is so horrible and we're all being part of China." Meanwhile, I think of one thing.
This is the sound of apathy... of inactive whining... of grumbling without really giving thought to what could have been.
It doesn't take an expert to put two and two together to see things aren't bad as people perceive them to be. Yes, the long term effects are questionable, but like all things of such big nature, only the history books and historians will judge the effects. We are by nature, creatures of looking for an easy way out. No matter what we say about, "Oh think of the future generations.", a lot of us are plain selfish, and why not for the name of economic stability and paying the bills.
Whatever you want to think President Obama and his policies, like any president I have my agreements and disagreements with them, his economic polices coupled with President Bush's actions in late 2008 have stopped potentially massive bleeding. People don't seem to understand the being the world's reserve currency (one of a few e.g Euro, Yen, Pound), the only currency worth of purchasing oil, and actually a few countries have adapted the dollar into the primer currency of their country, that the US dollar is a global currency. Logically, our dollars have to be printed daily, not only to feed our need for the medium of exchange, but for a majority of the world needs our dollars.
People scream or complain of "Geez, we're going into debt and printing a lot of dollars." I don't the amount of dollars that are circulating around in each country, but there has to a crapload of it moving about. Sure, debt management isn't one of America's fortes, but it seems that a nation can spend in one of two areas. Those two areas of general spending is domestic spending or foreign spending.
I can't seem to mention the huge cost of waging war that we outspent both countries net worth easily. People seem to lose focus that priority one of spending American dollars is spending it here at home for improving and maintaining what we have. Foreign spending is also good, just not in large amounts. Also seemingly forgotten is the economics of waging war is usually short-term and we benefit from something. Only in the caves people would stand behind the whole Iraq war on, "Oh we're kicking out a bad man.", which has been long proven to be about oil. Plus, Persian Gulf War 1991 proved that premise of basing 2003 Iraq War on it being largely false in the first place.
Obama isn't some crazy man, he's a shrewd, strategic planner. The economy has hit bottom and isn't sinking lower, even with all the crazy debt piling up. It's not unthinkable that his cabinet is pulling the right strings. I know I use to think the premise of thinking, "AH, LET IT FAIL!!!" No longer, failing companies I know is the true capitalist thinking, but it's really bad when you think about it because they got so big that it wouldn't just affect them but chain reaction beyond themselves.
Health insurance... it was needed. People are sometimes like a bunch of lemmings and can't figure out why when you have a sudden emergency and don't have insurance, you get fully billed. Yes, I've continued to say that it isn't perfect and I don't when any government legislation has been perfect.
We should be encouraged and actually forced to buy "catastrophic" coverage, but only that. It just sounds like buying minimum coverage for a car, but just for yourself. You're covering yourself from harm and paying up the butt for medical bills. Beyond catastrophic coverage, you can add on to build custom coverage with private companies or with *chuckles* Medicaid or Medicare. We all know how bad that system is... and that's that.
Think about it... relative good for the new year I think.
Facebook Archive - December Economics
Wall Street Christmas Crossroads
In the world of stocks and business, November and December are the busiest months for trading and for best performance. But of late, trade volumes are down as Dow Jones is hitting resistance at the 10,500 level. All the experts and investors are indecisive on where the financial markets is heading, the data is out there, but everybody is coming to different conclusions about the future. This indecisiveness has built up huge amounts of potential energy... either for further explosive growth or that dreaded "double-dip" recession. So you can be darn sure that before the month is out people will decide whether to be optimistic bulls or hibernating bears traders.
Below is the highly watched S&P 500 index that is showing that resistance from the 2007-2008 highs (the red line) has reached the rallying support from March 2009 lows (the blue line). Our continued economic recovery does hinge on people's opinion on the current worries: Concerns over a "double-dip" recession, concerns over interest rate hikes, and concerns over market valuation.
Investors and strategists are on the sidelines at the moment, but with trading
volumes down, I cannot stress the fact the amount of potential energy
waiting to be unleashed.
Las Vegas of the Middle East - Dubai
Not much was said about Dubai as the global economic crisis formed, but some knew that back a year ago that Las Vegas, Nevada investments dried up as the cash flow contracted backwards to various investors. We all know of Las Vegas' extravagance, but then a couple years back we got the revelation of a more extravagance in the epitome of Dubai.
Concerns about Dubai's debt didn't surface until Thanksgiving week this year when they requested a six-month freeze on repayment of $6 billion in debt. While it didn't hit American banks and investors hard on the limited trading hours on Black Friday, it's shock wave rippled through European and Asian markets.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernake Under Fire?
It's definitely not easy to make tough choices in tough times, especially if your the one guy (or two) of the world's biggest economy. It won't be in the near future that we'll be ever sure whether the bailout and various other government-endorsed stimulus programs did work. However, politics love a scapegoat and that seems to be in the nomination of Ben Bernake's second term run being approved through Congress. I think he'll serve as the chairman for the duration of Obama's first term.
In the world of stocks and business, November and December are the busiest months for trading and for best performance. But of late, trade volumes are down as Dow Jones is hitting resistance at the 10,500 level. All the experts and investors are indecisive on where the financial markets is heading, the data is out there, but everybody is coming to different conclusions about the future. This indecisiveness has built up huge amounts of potential energy... either for further explosive growth or that dreaded "double-dip" recession. So you can be darn sure that before the month is out people will decide whether to be optimistic bulls or hibernating bears traders.
Below is the highly watched S&P 500 index that is showing that resistance from the 2007-2008 highs (the red line) has reached the rallying support from March 2009 lows (the blue line). Our continued economic recovery does hinge on people's opinion on the current worries: Concerns over a "double-dip" recession, concerns over interest rate hikes, and concerns over market valuation.
 |
| S&P 500 Index, Weekly, 42 month timeline |
Las Vegas of the Middle East - Dubai
Not much was said about Dubai as the global economic crisis formed, but some knew that back a year ago that Las Vegas, Nevada investments dried up as the cash flow contracted backwards to various investors. We all know of Las Vegas' extravagance, but then a couple years back we got the revelation of a more extravagance in the epitome of Dubai.
Concerns about Dubai's debt didn't surface until Thanksgiving week this year when they requested a six-month freeze on repayment of $6 billion in debt. While it didn't hit American banks and investors hard on the limited trading hours on Black Friday, it's shock wave rippled through European and Asian markets.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernake Under Fire?
It's definitely not easy to make tough choices in tough times, especially if your the one guy (or two) of the world's biggest economy. It won't be in the near future that we'll be ever sure whether the bailout and various other government-endorsed stimulus programs did work. However, politics love a scapegoat and that seems to be in the nomination of Ben Bernake's second term run being approved through Congress. I think he'll serve as the chairman for the duration of Obama's first term.
Facebook Archive - Political Analysis - June '09
Written on June 18, 2009-
Back in October 2008, I wrote a six piece political analysis detailing what I thought about both presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama and their views on various domestic and foreign issues. Fast forward to the present day and we have Barack Obama as President of the United States of America and it's about a few days from being in office for six months.
Of course, many of the things that I've touched on back in October hasn't been entirely been talked about, and most things are inclusive for the time being. However, there has been plenty of things going on to talk about to fuel this six month analysis.
Foreign Issues:
Iraq:
“Now, what I've said is we should end this war responsibly. We should do it in phases. But in 16 months we should be able to reduce our combat troops, put — provide some relief to military families and our troops and bolster our efforts in Afghanistan so that we can capture and kill bin Laden and crush al-Qaida.” - Barack Obama, pre-election speech.
Since then, the US and Iraq have signed a new security agreement that extends the time for our 140,000 troops to stay in Iraq until 2012, but of course, that is the latest deadline for withdrawal. On February 27, 2009, President Obama laid out a more updated plan for withdrawal. About 100,000 troops are to leave Iraq over a period of 18 months so that by August 2010, only non-combatant troops are left in Iraq in advisory roles.
The US military has been preparing to pull out of all major Iraqi cities by the end of this month per terms to the Iraqi government and Iraqi Security Forces shall take over responsibilities for security in urban areas.
So in my opinion... or last opinion, I will quote myself.
"Iraq definitely need to be a done deal before end of 2009 or 2010 if the next occupant of the White House values another 4 years in office." never launch a nuclear weapon in anger, well because they'll be blown to hell and back... twice. PRK is a child without their lollipop, than cries loudly. Obama has used the more UN sanctions route, not bad, in my opinion. Even the Russians and Chinese have distanced themselves from North Korea, for the time being.
10 Reasons why North Korea will never attack South Korea:
1. Nuking South Korea, Japan, or the US will result in instant death, no exceptions. With an arsenal of nuclear weapons, of course.
2. Japan is antsy against the aggressiveness of PRK, thus the reasons for the Japanese's expanding their military in recent years. And will fight PRK, if needed.
3. Any PRK offensive depends on the support of the Chinese or Russians, without them, they can't fight.
4. Supply wise, with China or Russia supplying them with oil, any offensive they make will never succeed. They will be out of fuel within a week or less of fighting.
5. Food, most of their food is UN aid... so feeding a huge 1 million plus army is going to be a pain.
6. Technology gap... North Korea still uses T-34s, T-55s and some T-72s (note T-34s are World War 2 era tanks) vs. M1 Abrams and Black Panther tanks of RoK. Just to note, T-72s died by the dozens against M1s in the first Gulf War.
7. Two guided-missile destroyers in the Sea of Japan covering any PRK threat... at all times.
8. One entire US Navy carrier battle group in Tokyo, with a 92 hour deployment time.
9. F-22 fighter wing in Okinawa vs. nothing.
10. B2 stealth bombers and B52 bomber wings in Guam.
Honestly, North Korea would only kill themselves if they launched a nuke... anywhere. Lines are clearly in the sand, and they know that. South Korea technically has a guarantee that the US would launch their stockpile of nukes upon North Korea, if it ever went nuclear.
Iran:
Okay, so the offer of diplomacy on Iran's nuclear program by Obama has produced silence, strange to the general citizen, but not so much by low-level diplomats and the experts on Iran. President Obama has dropped the original pre-condition of stopping the program outright to no pre-conditions to allow UN nuclear inspectors into Iran's nuclear sites.
The ball is in Iran's court, but with the recent elections, the talks won't happen, yet. But of course that wholly depends not on whom is president of Iran, but the group of Islamic clergy ruling the country. Sit and wait it seems, since the silence is definitely louder than the rhetoric and somebody has to "speak".
Nuclear Proliferation:
On an international scale, people can technically count the number of states that are confirmed or suspected holders of nuclear weapons technology and has detonated a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear Club:
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Members:
- United States
- Russia
- United Kingdom
- France
- China
Non-NPT Members w/ known stockpile of nuclear weapons:
- India
- Pakistan
- North Korea
Undeclared nuclear weapons states:
- Israel
And of course the suspected nuclear weapons states:
- Syria
- Iran
Total: 11
Now, 11 nations in the world (excluding S. Africa nuclear weapons program, dismantled in the early '90s) have access to nuclear weapons or trying to develop them. Still, the US and Russia have enough nukes to destroy the world a couple times over... and honestly, anyone planning to detonate a nuclear weapon is going to get a swift dose of death. Of course, we are trying to prevent such a tragic scenario to occur, but in detonating such a weapon will result in a very tragic consequences for accused nation. Thus an the likelihood of such an attack with nukes by terrorists will continue to be slim unless a crazed person is in charge. But such is fate.
Conclusion on Foreign Issues:
There is still a lot on Obama's plate, but so far, he's doing well for just six months in office. Ever watchful, and always informed, Obama is playing his cards well. I just fear that Afghanistan is getting to his head and will shape the main point for the 2012 election.
America does not need to play God on the "List of acceptable world leaders". Regretfully, every world leader is appointed to head their selected state with God's blessing. Obama knows that even America has limitations and should not be playing world cop... like ever.
Domestic:
Economy:
Okay, this is a lot of crap to cover, the banks, fall of Chrysler and GM, government bailout money, etc., etc. So let me rewind to my last analysis back in October and see what I predicted. But I'm not God, just assuming always.
I predicted:
This $700 billion bailout is a sure thing. It definitely won't solve any long term problems as the housing/credit crisis continues. Its there to cushion the fall so that everyone doesn't feel the fallout up their butt at once.
If this bailout doesn't pass... or doesn't work, everybody should hold on, things are going to take a turn for the worst and pray they get through this.
And consider this as a big government hedge fund... this $700 billion and with Secretary Paulson being the ex-Goldman Sach bigshot money maker, the government might make out of this thing some sort of profit if it goes well. The $85 billion to AIG isn't going to make it big again... and when its all said and done, there probably won't be much of an AIG left in a couple years since this crippled it permanently. Selling parts of it is highly likely Washington Mutual is definitely headed to be sold off in its entirety or in parts to another bank like JPMorgan.
There is definitely a long-shot hope that Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley survive but as commercial banks instead of investment banks, more so for Goldman since Warren Buffet injected $5 billion in capital into that business. Out of all the financial bigshots, JPMorgan and Chase and Bank of America are going to remand standing, with Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley being probable in survival.
So, the $700 billion bailout happened, but let's include the other funds that the government almost forgot to tell you they used to fund the bailout. The total cost of the bailout: Over one trillion... over two trillion... actually I forgot the number since I stopped counting at $2,999,999,999.99 USD. Indeed, the number is very big... and it covers not only the financial sector but the government is in a lot of industries now.
Secondly, the bailout indeed didn't pass the first time and Wall Street took an epic dive. Anybody who had stock must have been balling their eyes out, which most did. Thirdly, I don't honestly know a thing about the workings of the $700 billion bailout, but something tells me now, if it was a hedge fund thingy, it's really sucks to be a part of it... oh well, we're all just taxpayers.Onto the four point, so yeah, AIG is decimated beyond recognition, so that's that. Honestly the prediction of Washington Mutual going bankrupt and being bought up by JPMorgan was a very scary prediction, but so far, the Chase logos are popping up everywhere now. So the transition is going smoothly, as expected.
Meanwhile, it is indeed disappointing that General Motors and Chrysler bankrupted themselves. Of course many people have said they don't buy GM or Chrysler for years due to poor workmanship, but from a corporate stance, producing almost exclusively on SUVs, light trucks, and heavy duty pickup trucks was a business models that leaned on a very flawed pretense of low gas prices.
Just to note, the Midwest in general has been hit the hardest in the recession, with double-digit unemployment. The manufacturing heartland of America has been declining for years and the current recession has kept the Midwestern states in a continuous state of economic downturn.
Indeed, GM's and Chrysler's past actions should not be supported but of course complete failure is very bad. Limited government intervention is warrented to prevent a systematic collapse of auto parts suppliers, financial institutions, and raw materials suppliers. GM and Chrysler should never be looked at as a single entity, but one must note that they contracted out much work to lesser companies that contributed to the final product of either company.
Yes, I know that the unions are to partially to blame in the mess, but of course one must not forget that the corporate section of both companies also largely contributed to their respectful falls. The United Auto Workers union (UAW) should have not gouged out both companies with elaborate benefits and retirement packages. Paying workers at $70 an hour to build car is, seriously, way overpriced for labor.
Regretfully, bailing out GM and Chrysler is a sad but necessary deal, but the strings attached and the goals both are required to take is enormous... and so is the consequences of failure.
Conclusion:
Economically, there are signs of recovery on Wall Street, minimum recovery, but we have technically hit bottom. Lots of people say, "Let them all fail!" Yet, when push comes to shove, I believe nobody wants to replay the 1930's all over again. Currently, unemployment is around 9%, nationally and that is with heavy government intervention. Without, I hate to say it, I would predict 15-20% unemployment easily, without hesitation. I don't agree with the whole bailout deal, I have to agree that spending imaginary money to stave off the dire straits is better than the raw consequences.
I don't what to say, human greed is still the root cause, sadly. So the end of the American economic engine is put off to die another day.
Back in October 2008, I wrote a six piece political analysis detailing what I thought about both presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama and their views on various domestic and foreign issues. Fast forward to the present day and we have Barack Obama as President of the United States of America and it's about a few days from being in office for six months.
Of course, many of the things that I've touched on back in October hasn't been entirely been talked about, and most things are inclusive for the time being. However, there has been plenty of things going on to talk about to fuel this six month analysis.
Foreign Issues:
Iraq:
“Now, what I've said is we should end this war responsibly. We should do it in phases. But in 16 months we should be able to reduce our combat troops, put — provide some relief to military families and our troops and bolster our efforts in Afghanistan so that we can capture and kill bin Laden and crush al-Qaida.” - Barack Obama, pre-election speech.
Since then, the US and Iraq have signed a new security agreement that extends the time for our 140,000 troops to stay in Iraq until 2012, but of course, that is the latest deadline for withdrawal. On February 27, 2009, President Obama laid out a more updated plan for withdrawal. About 100,000 troops are to leave Iraq over a period of 18 months so that by August 2010, only non-combatant troops are left in Iraq in advisory roles.
The US military has been preparing to pull out of all major Iraqi cities by the end of this month per terms to the Iraqi government and Iraqi Security Forces shall take over responsibilities for security in urban areas.
So in my opinion... or last opinion, I will quote myself.
"Iraq definitely need to be a done deal before end of 2009 or 2010 if the next occupant of the White House values another 4 years in office." never launch a nuclear weapon in anger, well because they'll be blown to hell and back... twice. PRK is a child without their lollipop, than cries loudly. Obama has used the more UN sanctions route, not bad, in my opinion. Even the Russians and Chinese have distanced themselves from North Korea, for the time being.
10 Reasons why North Korea will never attack South Korea:
1. Nuking South Korea, Japan, or the US will result in instant death, no exceptions. With an arsenal of nuclear weapons, of course.
2. Japan is antsy against the aggressiveness of PRK, thus the reasons for the Japanese's expanding their military in recent years. And will fight PRK, if needed.
3. Any PRK offensive depends on the support of the Chinese or Russians, without them, they can't fight.
4. Supply wise, with China or Russia supplying them with oil, any offensive they make will never succeed. They will be out of fuel within a week or less of fighting.
5. Food, most of their food is UN aid... so feeding a huge 1 million plus army is going to be a pain.
6. Technology gap... North Korea still uses T-34s, T-55s and some T-72s (note T-34s are World War 2 era tanks) vs. M1 Abrams and Black Panther tanks of RoK. Just to note, T-72s died by the dozens against M1s in the first Gulf War.
7. Two guided-missile destroyers in the Sea of Japan covering any PRK threat... at all times.
8. One entire US Navy carrier battle group in Tokyo, with a 92 hour deployment time.
9. F-22 fighter wing in Okinawa vs. nothing.
10. B2 stealth bombers and B52 bomber wings in Guam.
Honestly, North Korea would only kill themselves if they launched a nuke... anywhere. Lines are clearly in the sand, and they know that. South Korea technically has a guarantee that the US would launch their stockpile of nukes upon North Korea, if it ever went nuclear.
Iran:
Okay, so the offer of diplomacy on Iran's nuclear program by Obama has produced silence, strange to the general citizen, but not so much by low-level diplomats and the experts on Iran. President Obama has dropped the original pre-condition of stopping the program outright to no pre-conditions to allow UN nuclear inspectors into Iran's nuclear sites.
The ball is in Iran's court, but with the recent elections, the talks won't happen, yet. But of course that wholly depends not on whom is president of Iran, but the group of Islamic clergy ruling the country. Sit and wait it seems, since the silence is definitely louder than the rhetoric and somebody has to "speak".
Nuclear Proliferation:
On an international scale, people can technically count the number of states that are confirmed or suspected holders of nuclear weapons technology and has detonated a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear Club:
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Members:
- United States
- Russia
- United Kingdom
- France
- China
Non-NPT Members w/ known stockpile of nuclear weapons:
- India
- Pakistan
- North Korea
Undeclared nuclear weapons states:
- Israel
And of course the suspected nuclear weapons states:
- Syria
- Iran
Total: 11
Now, 11 nations in the world (excluding S. Africa nuclear weapons program, dismantled in the early '90s) have access to nuclear weapons or trying to develop them. Still, the US and Russia have enough nukes to destroy the world a couple times over... and honestly, anyone planning to detonate a nuclear weapon is going to get a swift dose of death. Of course, we are trying to prevent such a tragic scenario to occur, but in detonating such a weapon will result in a very tragic consequences for accused nation. Thus an the likelihood of such an attack with nukes by terrorists will continue to be slim unless a crazed person is in charge. But such is fate.
Conclusion on Foreign Issues:
There is still a lot on Obama's plate, but so far, he's doing well for just six months in office. Ever watchful, and always informed, Obama is playing his cards well. I just fear that Afghanistan is getting to his head and will shape the main point for the 2012 election.
America does not need to play God on the "List of acceptable world leaders". Regretfully, every world leader is appointed to head their selected state with God's blessing. Obama knows that even America has limitations and should not be playing world cop... like ever.
Domestic:
Economy:
Okay, this is a lot of crap to cover, the banks, fall of Chrysler and GM, government bailout money, etc., etc. So let me rewind to my last analysis back in October and see what I predicted. But I'm not God, just assuming always.
I predicted:
This $700 billion bailout is a sure thing. It definitely won't solve any long term problems as the housing/credit crisis continues. Its there to cushion the fall so that everyone doesn't feel the fallout up their butt at once.
If this bailout doesn't pass... or doesn't work, everybody should hold on, things are going to take a turn for the worst and pray they get through this.
And consider this as a big government hedge fund... this $700 billion and with Secretary Paulson being the ex-Goldman Sach bigshot money maker, the government might make out of this thing some sort of profit if it goes well. The $85 billion to AIG isn't going to make it big again... and when its all said and done, there probably won't be much of an AIG left in a couple years since this crippled it permanently. Selling parts of it is highly likely Washington Mutual is definitely headed to be sold off in its entirety or in parts to another bank like JPMorgan.
There is definitely a long-shot hope that Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley survive but as commercial banks instead of investment banks, more so for Goldman since Warren Buffet injected $5 billion in capital into that business. Out of all the financial bigshots, JPMorgan and Chase and Bank of America are going to remand standing, with Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley being probable in survival.
So, the $700 billion bailout happened, but let's include the other funds that the government almost forgot to tell you they used to fund the bailout. The total cost of the bailout: Over one trillion... over two trillion... actually I forgot the number since I stopped counting at $2,999,999,999.99 USD. Indeed, the number is very big... and it covers not only the financial sector but the government is in a lot of industries now.
Secondly, the bailout indeed didn't pass the first time and Wall Street took an epic dive. Anybody who had stock must have been balling their eyes out, which most did. Thirdly, I don't honestly know a thing about the workings of the $700 billion bailout, but something tells me now, if it was a hedge fund thingy, it's really sucks to be a part of it... oh well, we're all just taxpayers.Onto the four point, so yeah, AIG is decimated beyond recognition, so that's that. Honestly the prediction of Washington Mutual going bankrupt and being bought up by JPMorgan was a very scary prediction, but so far, the Chase logos are popping up everywhere now. So the transition is going smoothly, as expected.
Meanwhile, it is indeed disappointing that General Motors and Chrysler bankrupted themselves. Of course many people have said they don't buy GM or Chrysler for years due to poor workmanship, but from a corporate stance, producing almost exclusively on SUVs, light trucks, and heavy duty pickup trucks was a business models that leaned on a very flawed pretense of low gas prices.
Just to note, the Midwest in general has been hit the hardest in the recession, with double-digit unemployment. The manufacturing heartland of America has been declining for years and the current recession has kept the Midwestern states in a continuous state of economic downturn.
Indeed, GM's and Chrysler's past actions should not be supported but of course complete failure is very bad. Limited government intervention is warrented to prevent a systematic collapse of auto parts suppliers, financial institutions, and raw materials suppliers. GM and Chrysler should never be looked at as a single entity, but one must note that they contracted out much work to lesser companies that contributed to the final product of either company.
Yes, I know that the unions are to partially to blame in the mess, but of course one must not forget that the corporate section of both companies also largely contributed to their respectful falls. The United Auto Workers union (UAW) should have not gouged out both companies with elaborate benefits and retirement packages. Paying workers at $70 an hour to build car is, seriously, way overpriced for labor.
Regretfully, bailing out GM and Chrysler is a sad but necessary deal, but the strings attached and the goals both are required to take is enormous... and so is the consequences of failure.
Conclusion:
Economically, there are signs of recovery on Wall Street, minimum recovery, but we have technically hit bottom. Lots of people say, "Let them all fail!" Yet, when push comes to shove, I believe nobody wants to replay the 1930's all over again. Currently, unemployment is around 9%, nationally and that is with heavy government intervention. Without, I hate to say it, I would predict 15-20% unemployment easily, without hesitation. I don't agree with the whole bailout deal, I have to agree that spending imaginary money to stave off the dire straits is better than the raw consequences.
I don't what to say, human greed is still the root cause, sadly. So the end of the American economic engine is put off to die another day.
Facebook Archive - The Legacy of the 43rd President - George W. Bush (2000-2008)
Note: Written on November 6, 2008.
So as the Bush Administration slowly whines down in its final months before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2009, what has some the history book has to say about President Bush during his term in office, my opinions on Bush, and maybe in a later time, I'll update again when more stuff comes to light.
Many consider me a conservative, rightly so, but if you expect a conservative report, I'm not going to provide that.
Since George Bush's presidency revolves around September 11, 2001. Let's first start off of Bush's overall approval rating over the years. Do you see the irony here? This graph is a testament to the American people's flip-flop attitude, not that is should be a surprise.
George W. Bush's Approval Ratings - Wikipedia
Taking a look at Bush's foreign policy over the last 8 years.
Sure, you have Iraq and Afghanistan that is always a 'tip of the iceburg' on foreign policy, since American foreign policy pretty much involves almost every nation on the globe.
Foreign Policy -
Afghanistan: C+
Let's admit it, Afghanistan was the right target, the world community had our back on this one, and the cry foul on Mr. Osama Bin-Ladin was, at the least, short of Redneck invasion of that nation. In my opinion, we made significant inroads to realistically improve life in Afghanistan after the 2001 invasion. But Mr. Bush didn't take the historic cue from Russia and their epic fail in here in the 1980's... so in recent years, things have gotten cloudy here, not surprisingly. Also, America's dealings with Pakistan were at least pretty friendly before 2007, but supporting a dictator is an image of hypocrisy. Things were sunshiny here once, but since Iraq, quagmire. Of course, this conflict could have been handled better... but war isn't chocolates and flowers, right?
Iraq: D-
The only thing that stopped this from getting an 'F' was a optimist is me on the future, but nonetheless, Iraq has been mainly one big screw-up since before Day One of Fighting. Its pretty obvious by now that the original reason of going in (aka: Weapons of Mass Destruction) was a facepalm and a half. From a historic standpoint, one could say this was 'finish the job' from the Persian Gulf War of 1990-1991, but that's not true. The only reason why Bush 41 didn't topple Saddam the first time was due to political, cultural, etc. dangers it could produce, the problems we see now in Iraq. Of course, America is only staying there to prop whatever political stability there is left, since the real alternatives aren't looking too good. If the majority of Iraqis want us out, so be it... since political stability is in their ballpark now.
North Korea: B
Bush's dealings with North Korea has been one of the quietly real attempt at diplomacy towards North Korea's nuclear arsenal. This has been met with mixed success, as such the six nation dialogue talks have succeeded in persuading the North Koreans in disbanding, but diplomacy is a two-way street, and this is a real attempt at diplomacy, I give it that. Yes, the initial talks backfired sometime ago, but the at least the North Koreans are disbanding again.
Iran: C
Talk about clash of the hot-air leaders... on one side you have President of Iran threaten to "wipe out Israel from the map" then you have George Bush be the regular tough guy. This is a battle of words here and nothing more. Liberals are so up in arms over the possibility (Note: Which is seriously remote here folks) of invading Iran, its full of bulls**t. And the possibility of a nuclear strike of America by Iran... zippo. Only a handful of nations are capable of launching ICBMs. Of course we should be quite concerned with Iranian President's words, but if a 'dirty bomb' was in the form of... let's say a suitcase nuclear device. (Yes, technology is advancing where WMD's could possibly be shoved into a suitcase.) And even if there were talks... nothing would happen, and I think both sides agree on that. There's really nothing going on between the United States and Iran.
Russia: D+
Russia... this has been a source of pleasure and pain for the Bush Administration. Before Iraq, relations were good, then got poo-pooed in the following years. At face value though, Bush is right about Russia, its still Communist with Capitalist ideals. It doesn't help that we're setting up a "missile defense system" in Eastern Europe, oh please, defending Europe and America from a nuclear missile from the likes of Iran? Bullshit plan is bullshit. But its not like Russia is any better with their publicized assassinations. Look at Russia and their fuming at the elections in Ukraine and Georgia. Yes, Georgia was a complete ass by trying to take over the separatist region, but Russia's overwhelming force was uncalled for. As John McCain said, " When I looked at President Putin, I saw on his forehead, a K. a G. and a B."
China: B
We haven't heard much from our American-Chinese relations over the last 8 years, so it hasn't changed much for better or for worse. Apart for that "American spy plane colliding with a Chinese fighter jet" incident, the usual dealing with Taiwan, North Korea, and trade deficit. The same ball game from previous administrations continues to be played, so its all good.
Europe: D
Since Iraq, Bush has polarized Europe into anti- and pro- Bush governments. This is of course would happen in liberal-leaning Europe. Taking a cue from time to time from Europe is nice, but not always the absolute option. When has "Let's be Europe!" has become the fad? Europe is far from perfect, same applies to the United States too. In short, relations here got botched up
So as the Bush Administration slowly whines down in its final months before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2009, what has some the history book has to say about President Bush during his term in office, my opinions on Bush, and maybe in a later time, I'll update again when more stuff comes to light.
Many consider me a conservative, rightly so, but if you expect a conservative report, I'm not going to provide that.
Since George Bush's presidency revolves around September 11, 2001. Let's first start off of Bush's overall approval rating over the years. Do you see the irony here? This graph is a testament to the American people's flip-flop attitude, not that is should be a surprise.
George W. Bush's Approval Ratings - Wikipedia
Taking a look at Bush's foreign policy over the last 8 years.
Sure, you have Iraq and Afghanistan that is always a 'tip of the iceburg' on foreign policy, since American foreign policy pretty much involves almost every nation on the globe.
Foreign Policy -
Afghanistan: C+
Let's admit it, Afghanistan was the right target, the world community had our back on this one, and the cry foul on Mr. Osama Bin-Ladin was, at the least, short of Redneck invasion of that nation. In my opinion, we made significant inroads to realistically improve life in Afghanistan after the 2001 invasion. But Mr. Bush didn't take the historic cue from Russia and their epic fail in here in the 1980's... so in recent years, things have gotten cloudy here, not surprisingly. Also, America's dealings with Pakistan were at least pretty friendly before 2007, but supporting a dictator is an image of hypocrisy. Things were sunshiny here once, but since Iraq, quagmire. Of course, this conflict could have been handled better... but war isn't chocolates and flowers, right?
Iraq: D-
The only thing that stopped this from getting an 'F' was a optimist is me on the future, but nonetheless, Iraq has been mainly one big screw-up since before Day One of Fighting. Its pretty obvious by now that the original reason of going in (aka: Weapons of Mass Destruction) was a facepalm and a half. From a historic standpoint, one could say this was 'finish the job' from the Persian Gulf War of 1990-1991, but that's not true. The only reason why Bush 41 didn't topple Saddam the first time was due to political, cultural, etc. dangers it could produce, the problems we see now in Iraq. Of course, America is only staying there to prop whatever political stability there is left, since the real alternatives aren't looking too good. If the majority of Iraqis want us out, so be it... since political stability is in their ballpark now.
North Korea: B
Bush's dealings with North Korea has been one of the quietly real attempt at diplomacy towards North Korea's nuclear arsenal. This has been met with mixed success, as such the six nation dialogue talks have succeeded in persuading the North Koreans in disbanding, but diplomacy is a two-way street, and this is a real attempt at diplomacy, I give it that. Yes, the initial talks backfired sometime ago, but the at least the North Koreans are disbanding again.
Iran: C
Talk about clash of the hot-air leaders... on one side you have President of Iran threaten to "wipe out Israel from the map" then you have George Bush be the regular tough guy. This is a battle of words here and nothing more. Liberals are so up in arms over the possibility (Note: Which is seriously remote here folks) of invading Iran, its full of bulls**t. And the possibility of a nuclear strike of America by Iran... zippo. Only a handful of nations are capable of launching ICBMs. Of course we should be quite concerned with Iranian President's words, but if a 'dirty bomb' was in the form of... let's say a suitcase nuclear device. (Yes, technology is advancing where WMD's could possibly be shoved into a suitcase.) And even if there were talks... nothing would happen, and I think both sides agree on that. There's really nothing going on between the United States and Iran.
Russia: D+
Russia... this has been a source of pleasure and pain for the Bush Administration. Before Iraq, relations were good, then got poo-pooed in the following years. At face value though, Bush is right about Russia, its still Communist with Capitalist ideals. It doesn't help that we're setting up a "missile defense system" in Eastern Europe, oh please, defending Europe and America from a nuclear missile from the likes of Iran? Bullshit plan is bullshit. But its not like Russia is any better with their publicized assassinations. Look at Russia and their fuming at the elections in Ukraine and Georgia. Yes, Georgia was a complete ass by trying to take over the separatist region, but Russia's overwhelming force was uncalled for. As John McCain said, " When I looked at President Putin, I saw on his forehead, a K. a G. and a B."
China: B
We haven't heard much from our American-Chinese relations over the last 8 years, so it hasn't changed much for better or for worse. Apart for that "American spy plane colliding with a Chinese fighter jet" incident, the usual dealing with Taiwan, North Korea, and trade deficit. The same ball game from previous administrations continues to be played, so its all good.
Europe: D
Since Iraq, Bush has polarized Europe into anti- and pro- Bush governments. This is of course would happen in liberal-leaning Europe. Taking a cue from time to time from Europe is nice, but not always the absolute option. When has "Let's be Europe!" has become the fad? Europe is far from perfect, same applies to the United States too. In short, relations here got botched up
Facebook Archive - American Financial Market Crisis Analysis
Author's Note: Wrtitten on September 25, 2008, one day before Washington Mutual failed and was bought up by JPMorgan and Chase for $1.9 billion.
Edit: As of 6:30 PST... FDIC has seized all of Washington Mutual stocks and assets and has been sold to JPMorgan for $1.9 billion. One part of my conclusion comes true... and so soon.
So I have studied closely financial turmoil hitting Wall Street. I have gone as far as taking a daily venture to get involved in a realistic Fantasy Stock Market based off of real time stocks from Wall Street here on Facebook.
I've seen the Senate Banking Committee meeting with all the heads of the government financial department testifying in front of Congress. McCain suspending his campaign to head back to Washington D.C. and Obama wanted to continue to debate on Friday. The President's speech last night, plus a multitude of varying opinions throughout internet.
I've seen financial giants Lehman Brothers, Bank of America, Washington Mutual, Goldman Sach, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley heavily suffer in this mess. I saw American International Group, the world's biggest financial insurer collapse and get loaned $85 billion by the government. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the biggest mortgage companies collapsing earlier in September and consequently taken over by the US Treasury.
So what does mean for everyone? A lot of things... consequences that will last for a long, long time.
Analysis: As President Bush stated last night, "The entire economy is in danger." But why pass a $700 billion bailout... wait... bailout isn't the right word, more like loan. So its a $700 billion loan. The reason for it is quite obvious, to prevent a total, sudden collapse of the American financial market.
Before summer, I watched people, including myself, on the Fantasy Stock Market short Lehman Brothers. The interpret that, shorting a stock is to bet that certain stock is going to fall and one profits from a company's failure. Shorting Lehman Brothers back in April, I knew that its days were numbers, and here we are in September, Lehman Brothers is bankrupt, being sold in pieces to the highest bidder. If I had real money, I would have been quite rich from that.
The trouble signs of the current problems span more than a year ago, and the long-term road paved for this moment spans back when President Bush first came into office.
So big whoop, right, we're bailing out the financial fat cats on Wall Street? Wrong!
The situation is much larger then that now. The failure of not passing out $700 billion is resigning to the immediate Day of Reckoning that faces America. A total collapse of the American financial market is quite an immense consequence. So what would happen?
1. The United States faces the biggest depression since 1929 arrives on our doorstep.
2. Hundreds of American banks nationwide closed their door as they default.
3. Thousands lose their jobs as companies go bankrupt
4. Housing foreclosures increase rapidly as banks call in all loans
5. Little or no credit is issued, preventing the purchasing of houses, cars, attending college, and other 'big purchase' items.
6. The country loses more than $700 billion as the full effect of the collapse ensues.
7. The American problems now becomes the Global problem as the effects of the depression spreads.
8. Commodities skyrocket
That's some of the reasons... so the problem is that big and bad... time to fret, yes? No.
So greed has come to roost... and to 'continue' this almighty road to 'American Prosperity' is through this aid package. Maybe its time to let the chips fall as they may, which I assure you that letting the chips fall would result in a depression. But who am I kidding with... nobody wants to suffer a global depression, including myself. Seriously though, lessons in complete failure is much more a learning experience than experiencing success. Isn't that what we all been taught that personal failure is a much better learning experience than success... just now, that same possible lesson could be implied upon an entire nation.
Conclusion:
This $700 billion bailout is a sure thing. It definitely won't solve any long term problems as the housing/credit crisis continues. Its there to cushion the fall so that everyone doesn't feel the fallout up their butt at once.
If this bailout doesn't pass... or doesn't work, everybody should hold on, things are going to take a turn for the worst and pray they get through this. And consider this as a big government hedge fund... this $700 billion and with Secretary Paulson being the ex-Goldman Sach bigshot money maker, the government might make out of this thing some sort of profit if it goes well.
The $85 billion to AIG isn't going to make it big again... and when its all said and done, there probably won't be much of an AIG left in a couple years since this crippled it permanently. Selling parts of it is highly likely
Washington Mutual is definitely headed to be sold off in its entirety or in parts to another bank like JPMorgan. There is definitely a long-shot hope that Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley survive but as commercial banks instead of investment banks, more so for Goldman since Warren Buffet injected $5 billion in capital into that business. Out of all the financial bigshots, JPMorgan and Chase and Bank of America are going to remand standing, with Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley being probable in survival.
Lastly, pity the soul, either John McCain or Barrack Obama, when they truly inherit this mess. And honestly, do not expect them to be FDR and pull a New Deal... and the history books state how truly how much the New Deal worked... which wasn't much. This $700 billion is the New Deal people... welcome to the new era of America.
Oh... McCain's pledge to stop his campaign and go back to D.C. is political showboating, a technically good cause to go back and put up his sleeves, but he isn't God, nor is he in any economic committees in Congress... so the debate should go on, but Obama is doing the lame arguments to McCain... so its lame either way.
Edit: As of 6:30 PST... FDIC has seized all of Washington Mutual stocks and assets and has been sold to JPMorgan for $1.9 billion. One part of my conclusion comes true... and so soon.
So I have studied closely financial turmoil hitting Wall Street. I have gone as far as taking a daily venture to get involved in a realistic Fantasy Stock Market based off of real time stocks from Wall Street here on Facebook.
I've seen the Senate Banking Committee meeting with all the heads of the government financial department testifying in front of Congress. McCain suspending his campaign to head back to Washington D.C. and Obama wanted to continue to debate on Friday. The President's speech last night, plus a multitude of varying opinions throughout internet.
I've seen financial giants Lehman Brothers, Bank of America, Washington Mutual, Goldman Sach, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley heavily suffer in this mess. I saw American International Group, the world's biggest financial insurer collapse and get loaned $85 billion by the government. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the biggest mortgage companies collapsing earlier in September and consequently taken over by the US Treasury.
So what does mean for everyone? A lot of things... consequences that will last for a long, long time.
Analysis: As President Bush stated last night, "The entire economy is in danger." But why pass a $700 billion bailout... wait... bailout isn't the right word, more like loan. So its a $700 billion loan. The reason for it is quite obvious, to prevent a total, sudden collapse of the American financial market.
Before summer, I watched people, including myself, on the Fantasy Stock Market short Lehman Brothers. The interpret that, shorting a stock is to bet that certain stock is going to fall and one profits from a company's failure. Shorting Lehman Brothers back in April, I knew that its days were numbers, and here we are in September, Lehman Brothers is bankrupt, being sold in pieces to the highest bidder. If I had real money, I would have been quite rich from that.
The trouble signs of the current problems span more than a year ago, and the long-term road paved for this moment spans back when President Bush first came into office.
So big whoop, right, we're bailing out the financial fat cats on Wall Street? Wrong!
The situation is much larger then that now. The failure of not passing out $700 billion is resigning to the immediate Day of Reckoning that faces America. A total collapse of the American financial market is quite an immense consequence. So what would happen?
1. The United States faces the biggest depression since 1929 arrives on our doorstep.
2. Hundreds of American banks nationwide closed their door as they default.
3. Thousands lose their jobs as companies go bankrupt
4. Housing foreclosures increase rapidly as banks call in all loans
5. Little or no credit is issued, preventing the purchasing of houses, cars, attending college, and other 'big purchase' items.
6. The country loses more than $700 billion as the full effect of the collapse ensues.
7. The American problems now becomes the Global problem as the effects of the depression spreads.
8. Commodities skyrocket
That's some of the reasons... so the problem is that big and bad... time to fret, yes? No.
So greed has come to roost... and to 'continue' this almighty road to 'American Prosperity' is through this aid package. Maybe its time to let the chips fall as they may, which I assure you that letting the chips fall would result in a depression. But who am I kidding with... nobody wants to suffer a global depression, including myself. Seriously though, lessons in complete failure is much more a learning experience than experiencing success. Isn't that what we all been taught that personal failure is a much better learning experience than success... just now, that same possible lesson could be implied upon an entire nation.
Conclusion:
This $700 billion bailout is a sure thing. It definitely won't solve any long term problems as the housing/credit crisis continues. Its there to cushion the fall so that everyone doesn't feel the fallout up their butt at once.
If this bailout doesn't pass... or doesn't work, everybody should hold on, things are going to take a turn for the worst and pray they get through this. And consider this as a big government hedge fund... this $700 billion and with Secretary Paulson being the ex-Goldman Sach bigshot money maker, the government might make out of this thing some sort of profit if it goes well.
The $85 billion to AIG isn't going to make it big again... and when its all said and done, there probably won't be much of an AIG left in a couple years since this crippled it permanently. Selling parts of it is highly likely
Washington Mutual is definitely headed to be sold off in its entirety or in parts to another bank like JPMorgan. There is definitely a long-shot hope that Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley survive but as commercial banks instead of investment banks, more so for Goldman since Warren Buffet injected $5 billion in capital into that business. Out of all the financial bigshots, JPMorgan and Chase and Bank of America are going to remand standing, with Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley being probable in survival.
Lastly, pity the soul, either John McCain or Barrack Obama, when they truly inherit this mess. And honestly, do not expect them to be FDR and pull a New Deal... and the history books state how truly how much the New Deal worked... which wasn't much. This $700 billion is the New Deal people... welcome to the new era of America.
Oh... McCain's pledge to stop his campaign and go back to D.C. is political showboating, a technically good cause to go back and put up his sleeves, but he isn't God, nor is he in any economic committees in Congress... so the debate should go on, but Obama is doing the lame arguments to McCain... so its lame either way.
Facebook Archives - The 2008 Presidential Elections Part 5 - Going God Side
So lastly, what are the spiritual aspects of this 'grand' election? What is God doing here in America?
Let me tell you what I think. It should come to no surprise that a recession is upon this nation... full of greedy and the "I WANT, I WANT!" mentality. With fiscal responsibility at an all time low among its citizens, we have collectively reaped what we have sown. If there is anything to be pitied upon, it should be the ways the citizens of the United States foolishly spend their money away.
The consumerism, the greed, the semi-welfare state to support the lazy, and lack of initiative. The lack of personal accountability. The blame game that blames the government and while everyone has a pity party because they got burned by making bad choices.
Who are we to dictate other's lives outside of our nation, when we can hardly take care of ourselves.
The citizens of these United States are pinning their hope on a new President, not on God. If you think change is on the horizon, that this new president is the figurehead of change, your faith is misleading.
Look at you, your reading this, you have a computer. How many nations can boast having such a great piece of technology with easy access to? How many of you can buy food at a local supermarket that is within 10 miles or less of your location? So of you have nice cars? How many third-world nations have that? How about the ease of ground transportation via freeway and paved roads! How many nations in the third-world have stinking paved roads? What about access to clothing, damn we have an entire industry devoted to making clothes... and you what, third-world nations get our second-hands or native clothing. And that's just material wealth...
That list goes on... just figure out how (pardon me) damn blessed you are. Be at least thankful that you were fortunate to be born in this wonderful country. Yes, it could be better, but look at the sheer magnitude that God has blessed this nation. This nation is a nation of little faith, we deserve our lot currently.
Greed has lead us here, the wave of consequences are arriving. Shame on us.
God help us.
Let me tell you what I think. It should come to no surprise that a recession is upon this nation... full of greedy and the "I WANT, I WANT!" mentality. With fiscal responsibility at an all time low among its citizens, we have collectively reaped what we have sown. If there is anything to be pitied upon, it should be the ways the citizens of the United States foolishly spend their money away.
The consumerism, the greed, the semi-welfare state to support the lazy, and lack of initiative. The lack of personal accountability. The blame game that blames the government and while everyone has a pity party because they got burned by making bad choices.
Who are we to dictate other's lives outside of our nation, when we can hardly take care of ourselves.
The citizens of these United States are pinning their hope on a new President, not on God. If you think change is on the horizon, that this new president is the figurehead of change, your faith is misleading.
Look at you, your reading this, you have a computer. How many nations can boast having such a great piece of technology with easy access to? How many of you can buy food at a local supermarket that is within 10 miles or less of your location? So of you have nice cars? How many third-world nations have that? How about the ease of ground transportation via freeway and paved roads! How many nations in the third-world have stinking paved roads? What about access to clothing, damn we have an entire industry devoted to making clothes... and you what, third-world nations get our second-hands or native clothing. And that's just material wealth...
That list goes on... just figure out how (pardon me) damn blessed you are. Be at least thankful that you were fortunate to be born in this wonderful country. Yes, it could be better, but look at the sheer magnitude that God has blessed this nation. This nation is a nation of little faith, we deserve our lot currently.
Greed has lead us here, the wave of consequences are arriving. Shame on us.
God help us.
Facebook Archive - The 2008 Presidential Election Part 4 - The American Voter
But you know what peeves my more then that, more than the stupidity
issued by both candidates? The American voter. I admit I'm more
conservative leaning, but make no mistake I liberally bash liberals and
conservatives equally. (I hate political labels too, so inaccurate)
Why do I come down on the American voter? Note, I do not apply this to every voter, its just a lousy generalization (aka: faulty logic), I do acknowledge that. First off, I accuse any voter that McCain is another 4 years of the last 8 years. (Points at liberals mainly) Let me tell you, this is the first and foremost mistake anyone makes in politics, shortsightedness. I accuse most Americans for being such idiots for being shortsighted brats. When has the world and our nation run on 8 year cycles, more less 4 years?
I would like to point to America's foreign policy for example. That is a culmination of decades of policy. Nations don't run nor change on 4 year cycles, which comes to my next point, the American way of wanting things done fast. In our selfish nature, we have become comfortable in a "Fast Food" way of doing things, doing things quick.
Now, if a smart people read the right books about the Founding Fathers (aka: From them personally), one would find that America's government isn't meant for fast or quick reaction. Its built to be inept since they were smart people who thought that the majority of people could make smart decisions. Everything we 'hate' about government for being slow is there for a reason.
That is why FDR's New Deal failed, FEMA was slow in Katrina, and that this $700 billion bailout isn't going to work. (Just to note: Your tax dollars for bailing out the economic crisis already surpassed $700 billion before the bailout occurred)
My final point against the American voter is this: the ability to vote. Being 18 or any and being able to vote doesn't signify the intelligence to vote. Gut-voting is a sham and so is being persuaded to vote this 'certain way' because your friend said so. That's not true voting.
I'm not saying that voting is bad... I think uninformed voters shouldn't be allowed to votes since they are clueless. That's all.
There are other reasons, but due to that, that is probably the primary reason direct general elections do not exist today. And I can argue all day why a Electoral College exists for America's good.
 |
| Americans voting |
Why do I come down on the American voter? Note, I do not apply this to every voter, its just a lousy generalization (aka: faulty logic), I do acknowledge that. First off, I accuse any voter that McCain is another 4 years of the last 8 years. (Points at liberals mainly) Let me tell you, this is the first and foremost mistake anyone makes in politics, shortsightedness. I accuse most Americans for being such idiots for being shortsighted brats. When has the world and our nation run on 8 year cycles, more less 4 years?
I would like to point to America's foreign policy for example. That is a culmination of decades of policy. Nations don't run nor change on 4 year cycles, which comes to my next point, the American way of wanting things done fast. In our selfish nature, we have become comfortable in a "Fast Food" way of doing things, doing things quick.
Now, if a smart people read the right books about the Founding Fathers (aka: From them personally), one would find that America's government isn't meant for fast or quick reaction. Its built to be inept since they were smart people who thought that the majority of people could make smart decisions. Everything we 'hate' about government for being slow is there for a reason.
That is why FDR's New Deal failed, FEMA was slow in Katrina, and that this $700 billion bailout isn't going to work. (Just to note: Your tax dollars for bailing out the economic crisis already surpassed $700 billion before the bailout occurred)
My final point against the American voter is this: the ability to vote. Being 18 or any and being able to vote doesn't signify the intelligence to vote. Gut-voting is a sham and so is being persuaded to vote this 'certain way' because your friend said so. That's not true voting.
I'm not saying that voting is bad... I think uninformed voters shouldn't be allowed to votes since they are clueless. That's all.
There are other reasons, but due to that, that is probably the primary reason direct general elections do not exist today. And I can argue all day why a Electoral College exists for America's good.
Facebook Archive - The 2008 Presidential Election - Comments on Health Care
Lizzy - I would love you to elaborate
on healthcare. What about our aging seniors who are in trouble because
they mortgaged their homes just to pay for their medical bills? What
about people like me who can't afford to go to the chiropractor because
my health insurance provider doesn't believe the chiro reduces my
scoliosis symptoms? I technically have health insurance, but it seems
like I just bought a plastic card and still have to pay full price for
everything else. I know the British universal health care system is a
mess since you have only one clinic to choose from depending on where
you live, but Roger, what are your thoughts on this matter? Americans
aren't getting any healthier so this is a huge dilemma to face.
Roger - On health care. I'm not seeing bipartisanship on Obama's or McCain's stance on this issue. Both sides have reasonable small solutions to this specific problem.
I will admit, that the current federal assistance on health care is a sham. I do believe the that forces of economics play a big part on the burden of health care costs as well as the the longer one's life expectancy is, the more expensive one's health care is in general.The idea of universal health care system in America would be a nightmare with how the current American bureaucracy works. It's not a viable option for America, nor should it be. Having access to quality, reasonable health care is a right. One should be able to afford it out of their own pocket with good health insurance.
Which comes to health insurance, since 'free markets' have not leveled a benefiting cover to its whom it insurers, its due for an overhaul. In your case Lizzy, health insurers should be able to offer you a general health care insurance plan, while offering something like an additional deal, plan, or negotiated deal for your personal, unique health problems like your scoliosis.
Government invention to a certain degree is definitely warranted, negotiated on a regular basis by 'true' experts in the health industry, health insurance, and the government (with maybe a limited civilian panel to provide good feedback) But part of the reason health care is so expensive is that inflation has increased significantly over the last 50 years, which has increased costs, as you know. Another reason is the fear of lawsuits. With America's being sue-happy, its no wonder that doctors, hospitals, and insurers are wary on the public.
In line with my views of economics, seniors are suffering from a very volatile economic system that was set up in FDR's era. The existence of a semi-welfare state is straining our economy along with our current war woes. They shouldn't be mortgaging their houses to pay their health bills. Part of it is that some lack 'true' fiscal responsibility to save up enough money for retirement, while some is due to a tangled web of governmental regulations and rules (includes federal, state and local laws and regulations). Then some is blame on what I say about 1930's like economics wrecking havoc on planning on retiring right.
I have to be realistic that in a capitalist market, that we won't be able to cover everyone. Again as I say about limited government intervention in the form of hammering out a good general health insurance plan to the general public, and I'll add that it only provides the foundation of health insurance while it offers variations to people due to age, gender, and special needs. While my opinion is only a pinnacle to help the massive problem of health care, the root cause still lays within the structure of failed economics of the last 80 years. Obama and McCain are dancing around this issue, theirs are small fixes that avoid the cause of the problem: economics.
Lastly, I say that while America's health care system isn't perfect, thank God that we have such an advanced one as we have. It isn't the mess of Britain nor of the third-world nations level. Considered us, blessed for what we do have while hoping to continue improving.
Roger - On health care. I'm not seeing bipartisanship on Obama's or McCain's stance on this issue. Both sides have reasonable small solutions to this specific problem.
I will admit, that the current federal assistance on health care is a sham. I do believe the that forces of economics play a big part on the burden of health care costs as well as the the longer one's life expectancy is, the more expensive one's health care is in general.The idea of universal health care system in America would be a nightmare with how the current American bureaucracy works. It's not a viable option for America, nor should it be. Having access to quality, reasonable health care is a right. One should be able to afford it out of their own pocket with good health insurance.
Which comes to health insurance, since 'free markets' have not leveled a benefiting cover to its whom it insurers, its due for an overhaul. In your case Lizzy, health insurers should be able to offer you a general health care insurance plan, while offering something like an additional deal, plan, or negotiated deal for your personal, unique health problems like your scoliosis.
Government invention to a certain degree is definitely warranted, negotiated on a regular basis by 'true' experts in the health industry, health insurance, and the government (with maybe a limited civilian panel to provide good feedback) But part of the reason health care is so expensive is that inflation has increased significantly over the last 50 years, which has increased costs, as you know. Another reason is the fear of lawsuits. With America's being sue-happy, its no wonder that doctors, hospitals, and insurers are wary on the public.
In line with my views of economics, seniors are suffering from a very volatile economic system that was set up in FDR's era. The existence of a semi-welfare state is straining our economy along with our current war woes. They shouldn't be mortgaging their houses to pay their health bills. Part of it is that some lack 'true' fiscal responsibility to save up enough money for retirement, while some is due to a tangled web of governmental regulations and rules (includes federal, state and local laws and regulations). Then some is blame on what I say about 1930's like economics wrecking havoc on planning on retiring right.
I have to be realistic that in a capitalist market, that we won't be able to cover everyone. Again as I say about limited government intervention in the form of hammering out a good general health insurance plan to the general public, and I'll add that it only provides the foundation of health insurance while it offers variations to people due to age, gender, and special needs. While my opinion is only a pinnacle to help the massive problem of health care, the root cause still lays within the structure of failed economics of the last 80 years. Obama and McCain are dancing around this issue, theirs are small fixes that avoid the cause of the problem: economics.
Lastly, I say that while America's health care system isn't perfect, thank God that we have such an advanced one as we have. It isn't the mess of Britain nor of the third-world nations level. Considered us, blessed for what we do have while hoping to continue improving.
Facebook Archive - The 2008 Presidential Election Part 3 - Domestic Agenda
Ah, domestic policy... this one is going to be a doozy.
I'll hit the economy first. Here's some words for you in short: Nothin' gonna change with the economic structure.
As long as there are 'special interests' (We'll never get rid of 'em) all the regulations will not help, since there are always loopholes. Democrats and Republicans are equally guilty during election campaigns to take donates from businesses, corporations, etc.
Our economy is really a global economy. It is bigger than the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, the IMF, World Bank, Bank of England, Bank of China, European Central Bank, and so on and so forth combined. Obama and McCain are giving everyone false hopes. Capitol Hill and the United States knows as much about how to run the economy as pig can talk. They don't compute.
McCain says keep the Bush 'tax cuts' and new 'tax cuts'... new tax cuts for what!?!?! Republicans are gulity for they similarly ignore the fact that tax cuts do not increase tax revenues. Then you have Joe Biden saying, we can 'tax cut' our way out of the economic problems. See any similarities here? Then Obama points to 'failed policies'. What he fails to tell us is that it wasn't solely Republican policies that helped us into this mess. To accurately state it, its the 'failed policies' of the Bi-Partisan majority. Until the average American can gain self-responsibility on their own money, no change. Not the government's fault why the economy is in the dumps. May I point out that root cause here is greed, that's normal human nature.
I repeat, this isn't "Wall Street's fault" (points at average American) it's just much of your fault as well. The consumer has to sign the mortgage first, not the mortgage company.
100 year Dow Jones Industrial Market Chart (Adjusted for Inflation)
Second is Health Care. May I point your to bureaucracies like FEMA or the IRS, or say the CIA... bureaucrats in the healthcare system sucks. It's all nice and all to have health care for every American, I'm for it, but the reason people cannot afford healthcare is mainly for reasons like the part where Americans are sue-happy or like the average Joe who got sucked into the sub-prime mess, they can't handle their finances worth crap. I've haven't cared much for either one's position on health care... since is more bureaucracy. And Medicaid, ditch it before it eats this nation alive. Selfishness and poor finances are more to blame for poor health care in America than the government. It's no wonder health insurance is so high...
Thirdly, education. Most people know that our public schools are a mess and getting to college is a nightmare to financially. As most of you are graduates from a public school system, the overhaul plans by Obama isn't the solution, plain and simple. I've haven't heard much from McCain, but I figure nothing but a modified 'No Child Left Behind' Act is in order from him. Prime education (K-12) is in need of dire overhaul, and its really a state issue instead of a federal issue.
As for secondary education, Obama is closer to helping fund college for students easier, but come back to hit every college student in the face that while taxpayer money to fund your education is good and all... but one learn that paying for college should be hard. Both campaigns still haven't emphasized self-sufficiency for student to pay the majority of their college costs, while tying to federal aid as a crutch. Also, they haven't addressed higher textbook costs nor the reason colleges operate outside of regular inflationary curves.
While Obama has better plan in post-secondary education, some of McCain's ideas should be heeded, but both miss the mark with K-12 education.
In terms of energy independence. Both offer great suggestions. But isn't going to generate wealth. It only makes ourselves self-dependent. There is no 'consumerized' being made here, so there is no 'true' generation in wealth. Both are speaking the same lingo here pretty much... important topic, but not a true solution. Kinda of funny when the Democrats flip to supporting off-shore oil drilling... my 2 cents toward hypocrisy.
And lastly, retirement. (see where I'm tying a lot of these domestic issues to the economy) Ok, so there is the panic train to where in like 2040-something, Social Security runs out. To boldly state, but candidates are stating they can fix that. That folks is a very fat lie if I ever heard one... if there is one thing about government, they can't handle their finances worth crap. So SS is toast as people should be concerned. And here I go with Americans being more pro-active in being financially responsible. Government isn't your monetary babysitter.
In conclusion on my analysis. It really up to what you want to risk. Neither is really suitable for this office. I really don't care if Obama get in office or if McCain gets in with Palin as his VP. There is enough stuff from the last 8 years to occupy the next occupant for the next 4 years. Both are truly all talk and no substance. I will honestly state that when 2012 comes around, I will say, " I told you so. They both suck." If history serves me right... I give the next occupant a 'NO CHANGE HERE' grade. If you want to know who is going to win on Nov. 4th. I will state Obama will win the election if things go along as they they are campaign wise. I predict a 54 - 61% of the popular vote side with Obama and probably easily pick up 290+ electoral college votes. (Basing off of current campaign trends) The only thing Obama could possibly falter on is overestimating on voter turnout numbers. McCain still has an outside shot on Nov. 4th, but we'll see how the last few weeks turn out.
I'll hit the economy first. Here's some words for you in short: Nothin' gonna change with the economic structure.
As long as there are 'special interests' (We'll never get rid of 'em) all the regulations will not help, since there are always loopholes. Democrats and Republicans are equally guilty during election campaigns to take donates from businesses, corporations, etc.
Our economy is really a global economy. It is bigger than the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, the IMF, World Bank, Bank of England, Bank of China, European Central Bank, and so on and so forth combined. Obama and McCain are giving everyone false hopes. Capitol Hill and the United States knows as much about how to run the economy as pig can talk. They don't compute.
McCain says keep the Bush 'tax cuts' and new 'tax cuts'... new tax cuts for what!?!?! Republicans are gulity for they similarly ignore the fact that tax cuts do not increase tax revenues. Then you have Joe Biden saying, we can 'tax cut' our way out of the economic problems. See any similarities here? Then Obama points to 'failed policies'. What he fails to tell us is that it wasn't solely Republican policies that helped us into this mess. To accurately state it, its the 'failed policies' of the Bi-Partisan majority. Until the average American can gain self-responsibility on their own money, no change. Not the government's fault why the economy is in the dumps. May I point out that root cause here is greed, that's normal human nature.
I repeat, this isn't "Wall Street's fault" (points at average American) it's just much of your fault as well. The consumer has to sign the mortgage first, not the mortgage company.
Second is Health Care. May I point your to bureaucracies like FEMA or the IRS, or say the CIA... bureaucrats in the healthcare system sucks. It's all nice and all to have health care for every American, I'm for it, but the reason people cannot afford healthcare is mainly for reasons like the part where Americans are sue-happy or like the average Joe who got sucked into the sub-prime mess, they can't handle their finances worth crap. I've haven't cared much for either one's position on health care... since is more bureaucracy. And Medicaid, ditch it before it eats this nation alive. Selfishness and poor finances are more to blame for poor health care in America than the government. It's no wonder health insurance is so high...
Thirdly, education. Most people know that our public schools are a mess and getting to college is a nightmare to financially. As most of you are graduates from a public school system, the overhaul plans by Obama isn't the solution, plain and simple. I've haven't heard much from McCain, but I figure nothing but a modified 'No Child Left Behind' Act is in order from him. Prime education (K-12) is in need of dire overhaul, and its really a state issue instead of a federal issue.
As for secondary education, Obama is closer to helping fund college for students easier, but come back to hit every college student in the face that while taxpayer money to fund your education is good and all... but one learn that paying for college should be hard. Both campaigns still haven't emphasized self-sufficiency for student to pay the majority of their college costs, while tying to federal aid as a crutch. Also, they haven't addressed higher textbook costs nor the reason colleges operate outside of regular inflationary curves.
While Obama has better plan in post-secondary education, some of McCain's ideas should be heeded, but both miss the mark with K-12 education.
In terms of energy independence. Both offer great suggestions. But isn't going to generate wealth. It only makes ourselves self-dependent. There is no 'consumerized' being made here, so there is no 'true' generation in wealth. Both are speaking the same lingo here pretty much... important topic, but not a true solution. Kinda of funny when the Democrats flip to supporting off-shore oil drilling... my 2 cents toward hypocrisy.
And lastly, retirement. (see where I'm tying a lot of these domestic issues to the economy) Ok, so there is the panic train to where in like 2040-something, Social Security runs out. To boldly state, but candidates are stating they can fix that. That folks is a very fat lie if I ever heard one... if there is one thing about government, they can't handle their finances worth crap. So SS is toast as people should be concerned. And here I go with Americans being more pro-active in being financially responsible. Government isn't your monetary babysitter.
In conclusion on my analysis. It really up to what you want to risk. Neither is really suitable for this office. I really don't care if Obama get in office or if McCain gets in with Palin as his VP. There is enough stuff from the last 8 years to occupy the next occupant for the next 4 years. Both are truly all talk and no substance. I will honestly state that when 2012 comes around, I will say, " I told you so. They both suck." If history serves me right... I give the next occupant a 'NO CHANGE HERE' grade. If you want to know who is going to win on Nov. 4th. I will state Obama will win the election if things go along as they they are campaign wise. I predict a 54 - 61% of the popular vote side with Obama and probably easily pick up 290+ electoral college votes. (Basing off of current campaign trends) The only thing Obama could possibly falter on is overestimating on voter turnout numbers. McCain still has an outside shot on Nov. 4th, but we'll see how the last few weeks turn out.
Facebook Archive - The 2008 Presidential Election Analysis Part 1 - Foreign Policy
I'll start on Foreign Policy, since it's my strongest interest.
If anyone was watching the debates, it was a joke. Come on, McCain's and Obama's foreign policy ideas aren't really much different. I really liked during the 2nd Prez debate, Obama said,"The War on Terror began in Afghanistan and it will end there." Oh please, that was just on par with McCain's past, "We will be Iraq for 100 years." comment. They both support Israel, so general Middle Eastern policy in general changing is going to be moot.
Yes, of course, Iraq is going to have a conclusion in the next 4 years. But here's a newsflash on Iraq, America ain't leaving. Why? Because we meddled with it, the strategic dangers of an unstable Iraq increase 100 fold or more. So instead of being the short-sighted majority the rest of the nation is on being sooooooooooo focused on 'withdrawing'. I can assure you, Iraq will be unstable if we leave, their government is weak anyhow. If Obama wants to win in '12, he'll have to fulfill his promise at the cost of Middle Eastern stability. As for McCain, we'll be there until the Iraqis demand us to leave on public TV.
Iraq definitely need to be a done deal before end of 2009 or 2010 if the next occupant of the White House values another 4 years in office.
Then onto Afghanistan... here, they nearly agreed point-to-point here. Pakistan is going to be continued to be pissed at us... a war with them is a possibility, but a way outside chance. We'll definitely see the money spent in this theater of operations increase a lot by either the Obama or McCain Administration. No real difference here.
About Iran, Russia, Europe and other areas of American foreign interests, Obama will probably be more into diplomatic talks than McCain. But that is hardly a positive check on my list for Obama. Being more diplomatic, is a good thing in general, but then the flip side is you get stuff like Neville Chamberlain and 1939 debacles about, "We have peace in our time." The key here is can he spot a bluff when he sees one?
In conclusion, the biggest overlook by both of them, yes, is a major foreign policy shift. Don't expect one ladies and gentlemen. Yes, we'll see changes in Iraq and Afghanistan... but everyone is missing why such events exist today. I will say, check your history, check your history. More diplomacy is expected also, but don't hope on anything else.
During the past 7 years, while we've been so busy fighting two wars, the rest of the world has watched our military get stretched... and what do the bad guys do in the meantime, expand secretly. Expect some dangerous stuff coming from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and China between now and 2020.
A suggested foreign move would continue a somewhat course of 'strong-arm' foreign policy since the actual sharks got bigger instead an 'coalition-allies build up' foreign policy. This is a suggestion in light of foreign power-plays across the globe and a long-term situations across the globe for the next 20 years.
If anyone was watching the debates, it was a joke. Come on, McCain's and Obama's foreign policy ideas aren't really much different. I really liked during the 2nd Prez debate, Obama said,"The War on Terror began in Afghanistan and it will end there." Oh please, that was just on par with McCain's past, "We will be Iraq for 100 years." comment. They both support Israel, so general Middle Eastern policy in general changing is going to be moot.
Yes, of course, Iraq is going to have a conclusion in the next 4 years. But here's a newsflash on Iraq, America ain't leaving. Why? Because we meddled with it, the strategic dangers of an unstable Iraq increase 100 fold or more. So instead of being the short-sighted majority the rest of the nation is on being sooooooooooo focused on 'withdrawing'. I can assure you, Iraq will be unstable if we leave, their government is weak anyhow. If Obama wants to win in '12, he'll have to fulfill his promise at the cost of Middle Eastern stability. As for McCain, we'll be there until the Iraqis demand us to leave on public TV.
Iraq definitely need to be a done deal before end of 2009 or 2010 if the next occupant of the White House values another 4 years in office.
Then onto Afghanistan... here, they nearly agreed point-to-point here. Pakistan is going to be continued to be pissed at us... a war with them is a possibility, but a way outside chance. We'll definitely see the money spent in this theater of operations increase a lot by either the Obama or McCain Administration. No real difference here.
About Iran, Russia, Europe and other areas of American foreign interests, Obama will probably be more into diplomatic talks than McCain. But that is hardly a positive check on my list for Obama. Being more diplomatic, is a good thing in general, but then the flip side is you get stuff like Neville Chamberlain and 1939 debacles about, "We have peace in our time." The key here is can he spot a bluff when he sees one?
In conclusion, the biggest overlook by both of them, yes, is a major foreign policy shift. Don't expect one ladies and gentlemen. Yes, we'll see changes in Iraq and Afghanistan... but everyone is missing why such events exist today. I will say, check your history, check your history. More diplomacy is expected also, but don't hope on anything else.
During the past 7 years, while we've been so busy fighting two wars, the rest of the world has watched our military get stretched... and what do the bad guys do in the meantime, expand secretly. Expect some dangerous stuff coming from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and China between now and 2020.
A suggested foreign move would continue a somewhat course of 'strong-arm' foreign policy since the actual sharks got bigger instead an 'coalition-allies build up' foreign policy. This is a suggestion in light of foreign power-plays across the globe and a long-term situations across the globe for the next 20 years.
Facebook Archive - The 2008 Presidential Election Analysis (Opening & ???)
The following series was written back on Thursday, October 9, 2008. It can be found on my notes section of Facebook, now coming here to be archived as part of my future analysis.
The Opening - Written at 1:21 AM
Note: Be prepared for a wall of text. Part of a 5 note series. Reading it all is the best way to interpret what I'm saying.
So I'm left wondering after nearly 13-14 months of a circus of a presidential campaign laced with two facepalming debates and one forgettable VP debate, what makes either of these two candidate (Yes, McCain and Obama) are so qualified for US President?
So the contents of this lovely note... err analysis. This is part of a 5 note series.
1. Questions I ask for you to think about
2. Foreign Policy and analysis
3. Domestic Agenda with Economics, Health Care, Education, Energy and Retirement (in set order)
4. My beef against the 'American Voter'
5. The 'God' aspect of the 2008 election
What makes people (including the world) so giddy about Obama?
How is McCain tied to Mr. Bush?
What makes this election any more important then the last?
Why are people so focused on the last 8 years, when the world doesn't run on the last 8 years? How is the next 4 years going to be different then the past?
Can either one of them lead us through the 'War on Terror'?
Is one positive that Obama or McCain offer a solution to our woeful times economically?
How is Obama better McCain and vise-versa?
Is there going to be an policy change in our Foreign Policy?
What makes either of their domestic policy following?
Is Afghanistan the end of the 'War on Terror?
Does it (Afghanistan) need a surge?
Is there a real offer on the table on revamping or discarding Social Security and Medicaid?
What is 'true' education reform?
What about America's aging infrastructure, that needs to be replaced soon?
I ask these questions because they are important, America stands at the crossroads. These are valid questions that are being ignored by those two candidates or their answer are lame attempts to pander to their voter base.
The Opening - Written at 1:21 AM
Note: Be prepared for a wall of text. Part of a 5 note series. Reading it all is the best way to interpret what I'm saying.
So I'm left wondering after nearly 13-14 months of a circus of a presidential campaign laced with two facepalming debates and one forgettable VP debate, what makes either of these two candidate (Yes, McCain and Obama) are so qualified for US President?
So the contents of this lovely note... err analysis. This is part of a 5 note series.
1. Questions I ask for you to think about
2. Foreign Policy and analysis
3. Domestic Agenda with Economics, Health Care, Education, Energy and Retirement (in set order)
4. My beef against the 'American Voter'
5. The 'God' aspect of the 2008 election
What makes people (including the world) so giddy about Obama?
How is McCain tied to Mr. Bush?
What makes this election any more important then the last?
Why are people so focused on the last 8 years, when the world doesn't run on the last 8 years? How is the next 4 years going to be different then the past?
Can either one of them lead us through the 'War on Terror'?
Is one positive that Obama or McCain offer a solution to our woeful times economically?
How is Obama better McCain and vise-versa?
Is there going to be an policy change in our Foreign Policy?
What makes either of their domestic policy following?
Is Afghanistan the end of the 'War on Terror?
Does it (Afghanistan) need a surge?
Is there a real offer on the table on revamping or discarding Social Security and Medicaid?
What is 'true' education reform?
What about America's aging infrastructure, that needs to be replaced soon?
I ask these questions because they are important, America stands at the crossroads. These are valid questions that are being ignored by those two candidates or their answer are lame attempts to pander to their voter base.
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