Written on June 18, 2009-
Back in October 2008, I wrote a six piece political analysis detailing
what I thought about both presidential candidates, John McCain and
Barack Obama and their views on various domestic and foreign issues.
Fast forward to the present day and we have Barack Obama as President of
the United States of America and it's about a few days from being in
office for six months.
Of course, many of the things that I've
touched on back in October hasn't been entirely been talked about, and
most things are inclusive for the time being. However, there has been
plenty of things going on to talk about to fuel this six month analysis.
Foreign Issues:
Iraq:
“Now,
what I've said is we should end this war responsibly. We should do it
in phases. But in 16 months we should be able to reduce our combat
troops, put — provide some relief to military families and our troops
and bolster our efforts in Afghanistan so that we can capture and kill
bin Laden and crush al-Qaida.” - Barack Obama, pre-election speech.
Since
then, the US and Iraq have signed a new security agreement that extends
the time for our 140,000 troops to stay in Iraq until 2012, but of
course, that is the latest deadline for withdrawal. On February 27,
2009, President Obama laid out a more updated plan for withdrawal.
About 100,000 troops are to leave Iraq over a period of 18 months so
that by August 2010, only non-combatant troops are left in Iraq in
advisory roles.
The US military has been preparing to pull out of
all major Iraqi cities by the end of this month per terms to the Iraqi
government and Iraqi Security Forces shall take over responsibilities
for security in urban areas.
So in my opinion... or last opinion, I will quote myself.
"Iraq
definitely need to be a done deal before end of 2009 or 2010 if the
next occupant of the White House values another 4 years in office."
never launch a nuclear weapon in anger, well because they'll be blown to
hell and back... twice. PRK is a child without their lollipop, than
cries loudly. Obama has used the more UN sanctions route, not bad, in
my opinion. Even the Russians and Chinese have distanced themselves
from North Korea, for the time being.
10 Reasons why North Korea will never attack South Korea:
1.
Nuking South Korea, Japan, or the US will result in instant death, no
exceptions. With an arsenal of nuclear weapons, of course.
2. Japan
is antsy against the aggressiveness of PRK, thus the reasons for the
Japanese's expanding their military in recent years. And will fight PRK,
if needed.
3. Any PRK offensive depends on the support of the Chinese or Russians, without them, they can't fight.
4.
Supply wise, with China or Russia supplying them with oil, any
offensive they make will never succeed. They will be out of fuel within
a week or less of fighting.
5. Food, most of their food is UN aid... so feeding a huge 1 million plus army is going to be a pain.
6.
Technology gap... North Korea still uses T-34s, T-55s and some T-72s
(note T-34s are World War 2 era tanks) vs. M1 Abrams and Black Panther
tanks of RoK. Just to note, T-72s died by the dozens against M1s in the
first Gulf War.
7. Two guided-missile destroyers in the Sea of Japan covering any PRK threat... at all times.
8. One entire US Navy carrier battle group in Tokyo, with a 92 hour deployment time.
9. F-22 fighter wing in Okinawa vs. nothing.
10. B2 stealth bombers and B52 bomber wings in Guam.
Honestly,
North Korea would only kill themselves if they launched a nuke...
anywhere. Lines are clearly in the sand, and they know that. South
Korea technically has a guarantee that the US would launch their
stockpile of nukes upon North Korea, if it ever went nuclear.
Iran:
Okay,
so the offer of diplomacy on Iran's nuclear program by Obama has
produced silence, strange to the general citizen, but not so much by
low-level diplomats and the experts on Iran. President Obama has
dropped the original pre-condition of stopping the program outright to
no pre-conditions to allow UN nuclear inspectors into Iran's nuclear
sites.
The ball is in Iran's court, but with the recent
elections, the talks won't happen, yet. But of course that wholly
depends not on whom is president of Iran, but the group of Islamic
clergy ruling the country. Sit and wait it seems, since the silence is
definitely louder than the rhetoric and somebody has to "speak".
Nuclear Proliferation:
On
an international scale, people can technically count the number of
states that are confirmed or suspected holders of nuclear weapons
technology and has detonated a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear Club:
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Members:
- United States
- Russia
- United Kingdom
- France
- China
Non-NPT Members w/ known stockpile of nuclear weapons:
- India
- Pakistan
- North Korea
Undeclared nuclear weapons states:
- Israel
And of course the suspected nuclear weapons states:
- Syria
- Iran
Total: 11
Now,
11 nations in the world (excluding S. Africa nuclear weapons program,
dismantled in the early '90s) have access to nuclear weapons or trying
to develop them. Still, the US and Russia have enough nukes to destroy
the world a couple times over... and honestly, anyone planning to
detonate a nuclear weapon is going to get a swift dose of death. Of
course, we are trying to prevent such a tragic scenario to occur, but in
detonating such a weapon will result in a very tragic consequences for
accused nation. Thus an the likelihood of such an attack with nukes by
terrorists will continue to be slim unless a crazed person is in charge.
But such is fate.
Conclusion on Foreign Issues:
There is
still a lot on Obama's plate, but so far, he's doing well for just six
months in office. Ever watchful, and always informed, Obama is playing
his cards well. I just fear that Afghanistan is getting to his head and
will shape the main point for the 2012 election.
America does
not need to play God on the "List of acceptable world leaders".
Regretfully, every world leader is appointed to head their selected
state with God's blessing. Obama knows that even America has
limitations and should not be playing world cop... like ever.
Domestic:
Economy:
Okay,
this is a lot of crap to cover, the banks, fall of Chrysler and GM,
government bailout money, etc., etc. So let me rewind to my last
analysis back in October and see what I predicted. But I'm not God,
just assuming always.
I predicted:
This $700 billion
bailout is a sure thing. It definitely won't solve any long term
problems as the housing/credit crisis continues. Its there to cushion
the fall so that everyone doesn't feel the fallout up their butt at
once.
If this bailout doesn't pass... or doesn't work,
everybody should hold on, things are going to take a turn for the worst
and pray they get through this.
And consider this as a big
government hedge fund... this $700 billion and with Secretary Paulson
being the ex-Goldman Sach bigshot money maker, the government might make
out of this thing some sort of profit if it goes well. The $85
billion to AIG isn't going to make it big again... and when its all said
and done, there probably won't be much of an AIG left in a couple years
since this crippled it permanently. Selling parts of it is highly
likely Washington Mutual is definitely headed to be sold off in its entirety or in parts to another bank like JPMorgan.
There
is definitely a long-shot hope that Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley
survive but as commercial banks instead of investment banks, more so for
Goldman since Warren Buffet injected $5 billion in capital into that
business. Out of all the financial bigshots, JPMorgan and Chase
and Bank of America are going to remand standing, with Goldman Sach and
Morgan Stanley being probable in survival.
So,
the $700 billion bailout happened, but let's include the other funds
that the government almost forgot to tell you they used to fund the
bailout. The total cost of the bailout: Over one trillion... over two
trillion... actually I forgot the number since I stopped counting at
$2,999,999,999.99 USD. Indeed, the number is very big... and it covers
not only the financial sector but the government is in a lot of
industries now.
Secondly, the bailout indeed didn't pass the
first time and Wall Street took an epic dive. Anybody who had stock
must have been balling their eyes out, which most did. Thirdly, I
don't honestly know a thing about the workings of the $700 billion
bailout, but something tells me now, if it was a hedge fund thingy, it's
really sucks to be a part of it... oh well, we're all just taxpayers.Onto the four point, so yeah, AIG is decimated beyond recognition, so that's that. Honestly
the prediction of Washington Mutual going bankrupt and being bought up
by JPMorgan was a very scary prediction, but so far, the Chase logos are
popping up everywhere now. So the transition is going smoothly, as
expected.
Meanwhile, it is indeed disappointing that General
Motors and Chrysler bankrupted themselves. Of course many people have
said they don't buy GM or Chrysler for years due to poor workmanship,
but from a corporate stance, producing almost exclusively on SUVs, light
trucks, and heavy duty pickup trucks was a business models that leaned
on a very flawed pretense of low gas prices.
Just to note, the
Midwest in general has been hit the hardest in the recession, with
double-digit unemployment. The manufacturing heartland of America has
been declining for years and the current recession has kept the
Midwestern states in a continuous state of economic downturn.
Indeed,
GM's and Chrysler's past actions should not be supported but of course
complete failure is very bad. Limited government intervention is
warrented to prevent a systematic collapse of auto parts suppliers,
financial institutions, and raw materials suppliers. GM and Chrysler
should never be looked at as a single entity, but one must note that
they contracted out much work to lesser companies that contributed to
the final product of either company.
Yes, I know that the unions
are to partially to blame in the mess, but of course one must not forget
that the corporate section of both companies also largely contributed
to their respectful falls. The United Auto Workers union (UAW) should
have not gouged out both companies with elaborate benefits and
retirement packages. Paying workers at $70 an hour to build car is,
seriously, way overpriced for labor.
Regretfully, bailing out GM
and Chrysler is a sad but necessary deal, but the strings attached and
the goals both are required to take is enormous... and so is the
consequences of failure.
Conclusion:
Economically, there
are signs of recovery on Wall Street, minimum recovery, but we have
technically hit bottom. Lots of people say, "Let them all fail!" Yet,
when push comes to shove, I believe nobody wants to replay the 1930's
all over again. Currently, unemployment is around 9%, nationally and
that is with heavy government intervention. Without, I hate to say it, I
would predict 15-20% unemployment easily, without hesitation. I don't
agree with the whole bailout deal, I have to agree that spending
imaginary money to stave off the dire straits is better than the raw
consequences.
I don't what to say, human greed is still the root
cause, sadly. So the end of the American economic engine is put off to
die another day.
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