Saturday, May 22, 2021

The Digital Lone Wolf: Assessing the Next Wave of US Domestic Terrorism

 


Abstract

            U.S. lone-wolf terrorism has grown in the past 20 years as effective counterterrorism efforts and advances in the internet turn potential domestic terrorists to adopt lone-wolf terrorism strategies.  While the U.S. government and academics have long spent debating American lone wolf criteria, lone wolves have entirely adapted to the online environment to facilitate planning and execution of attacks. U.S. lone-wolf terrorists come from all socioeconomic backgrounds, including the military.   The primary method of a lone-wolf incident is done with firearms directed towards the federal government and law enforcement.  While lone-wolves are generally effective in evading detection, there is an operational security flaw as they balance between secrecy and the need to publicize their attacks.  The internet revolution has transformed the U.S. domestic terrorist scene to utilize online communities to keep anonymous and encrypted to avoid detection.  While the internet’s freedom is significantly beneficial to the American economy and political life, the freedom allows a relatively easy vector of radicalization and planning for lone-wolf terrorists.

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Introduction

            American lone-wolf terrorism has long been understudied compared to organized terrorist groups due to being overshadowed by organized terror to conduct more brutal attacks and higher public visibility.  The United States has identified that the threat of lone-wolf terrorism is the most significant national security threat facing the county (MacInnis, 2011).  Effective counterterrorism strategies have made organizational affiliation increasingly onerous for terrorists; lone-wolf terrorism has become an enticing strategy against the United States and its allies that rely on technology to increase effectiveness, lethality, and organizational methods. Understanding American lone wolf terrorism sheds light on the evolution and adaption of this strategy. Exploring the efficacy of modern lone-wolf terrorism sheds light on the potential future viability of the strategy. The world appears to be facing a new wave of terrorism that is centralized by lone-wolf strategies as traditional organizational methods fall out of favor embracing the anonymity afforded by the internet. Lone-wolves in today’s world regains prominence in a digital world where information to strategize, target, and publicize is easily at one’s fingertips to a global audience. 

History of U.S. Lone Wolf Terrorism

The United States is no stranger to lone-wolf terrorists throughout its history, characterized by lone political assassins, anarchists, anti-government, and religious individuals to produce political change through violence from President Garfield's assassination 1881 to the Orlando nightclub shooting in 2016 (Simon, 2011). A host of lone-wolf actors from political dissents, anarchists, radical environmentalists, racial supremacists, and religious extremists have left their mark on American history and trying to influence the nation's political future.  Each incident within the United States has prompted a response to increase security measures and awareness of various political issues. What distinguishes early U.S. lone wolf terrorism to modern lone-wolves stems from developments within white supremacists groups in the United States during the 1980s and 1990s.

Modern manifestations of US lone-wolf terrorism have formalized the idea of a "leaderless resistance" by white supremacist Louis Beam, during the 1980s to blunt law enforcement efforts against white supremacist groups (Simon, 2011). Beam utilized the term "lone wolves" in the popular lexicon that advocated organization in five or fewer cells with independent thinking and self-directed, which found widespread adoption across all ideologies such as environmental and Islamic extremists action (Berger, 2019; Simon, 2011; Smith, 2020).  The concept of leaderless resistance from all ideologies during the 1990s and 2000s invited government crackdown coupled with unambitious planning bound in failure exemplified by Naser Abdo and others (Berger, 2019).  Revival in the leaderless resistance concept came as internet technology matured to sustain open-source social media fuel social connections like-minded individuals for all ideologies to leverage utilization (Berger, 2019; Gartenstein-Ross, & Barr, 2016; Hunter, et al., 2020). American lone-wolf terrorism history remains grounded in conducting most of their acts by using firearms or bombs despite the advances in technology that allows for more careful planning (Alfaro-Gonzalez, et al., 2015). The combination of technology and firearms is a continued hallmark theme in modern lone-wolf terrorism.

Challenge of Defining Lone Wolf Terrorism

U.S. lone wolf terrorism studies' history is complicated by the definitional dilemma brought about by governmental and academic sources.  Terrorism studies have primarily focused on organized terrorist groups, rightfully so, since group-initiated attacks are the predominant incidents within the United States.  According to the University of Maryland Global Terrorism database (2019), there have been about 7,500 terrorist attacks that have taken place within the United States; Hamm and Spaaij (2017) reveal 115 cases of authentic lone-wolf incidents.  Some researchers challenge the notion of actual lone wolves like Ted Kaczynski as a far rarer phenomenon and that most lone-wolf actors have some form of social ties, as seen with definitions accommodating affiliation ties to terrorist organizations and receiving assistance (Schuurman, et al., 2019). The question of how socially isolated lone-wolves appear to some as woefully overstated and that external social influences encourage and justify violence for political means.  This challenge influences the criteria of U.S. lone-wolve incidents under research examination as Hamm and Spaaij (2017) adopted a stringent definition of lone-wolves acting alone with no significant external help as their basis of incidents. Others, such as Simon (2011), include small groups and critical external assistance as part of his criteria.

The U.S. government has grappled with defining lone-wolf terrorism, especially in the aftermath of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing.  The FBI changed its definition of terrorism from one year to the next as it tried to decide if a single individual should be considered a terrorist between 1994 to 1999 (Simon, 2011). A 2009 DHS report that ‘lone wolves and small terrorist cells embracing violent rightwing extremist ideology are the most dangerous domestic terrorism threat in the United States (Hamm & Spaaij, 2017).’ Despite this concern, Hamm and Spaaij (2017) write that the FBI, Department of Justice, and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) do not have public reports that address the growing threat concerns about lone-wolf terrorism.  In 2019, the FBI did publish their first public assessment of lone wolves under their ‘Lone Offenders’ report that defined a lone-wolf terrorist as a primary actor that is the primary planner and attacker that may have an affiliation to a terrorist organization and received assistance (Richards, et al., 2019).  The FBI definition is slightly looser than the strict definition from Hamm and Spaaij (2017), although both agree that the attacker's act is done primarily alone (Richards, et al., 2019).  While the government has struggled to define lone-wolf terrorists until very recently to help ground the understanding and criteria of approaches to U.S. lone-wolf terrorism.

Lone Wolf Strategy

The lone-wolf terrorist, as contemporarily defined, is an individual actor who plots and carries out a terrorist attack with little to no external assistance. One of the biggest reasons this strategy exists is that it can easily avoid most existing counterterrorism methods. Shhuurman (2019) notes that lone offender attacks in the United States are more deadly, possibly due to strong U.S. counterterrorism capacity for disrupting attacks from cells and organizations.  There are similarities between lone-wolves and organized terrorist groups in terms of tactics, motivations, and objectives.  Regardless of terrorism strategy, lone-wolves are like any other terrorist that seeks to promote political or religious change through violence (Simon, 2011).  A lone-wolve ability to avoid detection and maintain animosity makes it incredibly tough to predict and prevent attacks from such actors while supporting maximum creativity and innovation that group organization would possibly restrain (Simon, 2011).  The only person concerned with execution and planning is oneself. The themes behind lone-wolf incidents are extensive from anti-government, religion, race, pro-life, anti-law enforcement, sexual orientation, and anti-capitalism and environmental rights (Richard, et al., 2019).

Assessing Effectiveness of Lone Wolf Attacks

Hamm and Spaaji (2017) point out that lone-wolf terrorism lethality has been climbing every decade since the 1990s, which is, in turn, is influencing government and societal response to such incidents.  Hamm and Spaaji (2017) point out that lone-wolf terrorism lethality has been climbing every decade since the 1990s, which is, in turn, is influencing government and societal response to such incidents.  The predominant use of firearms in U.S. lone-wolf incidents has sparked national discussions on gun control, mental health, and political discourse's civil limits (Alfaro-Gonzalez, et al., 2015; Hamm & Spaaji, 2017; Richards, et al., 2019).  69 percent of lone wolves owned legally purchased firearms utilized in their attacks and 35 percent had formal firearms training (Richards, et al., 2019).  The attraction of using guns for U.S. lone-wolf terrorist incidents is postulated in the tightening of explosives regulation in the wake of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing combined with the continued easy to obtain gun laws (Hamm & Spaaji, 2017; Simon, 2011).  As most U.S. lone-wolf incidents are being carried out with a legally purchased gun, a disturbing trend exhibited in this form of terrorism complicates potential gun law reforms that could potentially reduce lone-wolf incidents.

Gill and Corner (2016) note that there is little difference between those that plot against the general public versus high-value targets in 111 incidents; however, a significant finding was that information leakage of intent to harm greatly increased when targeting the public.  Richards (2019) points out that lone wolves tend to target low-security areas 52 percent of the time. However, Gill & Corner’s (2016) research disputes that despite targeting high-value targets, more human capital, technical expertise, and planning should require more human capital and planning since lone-wolves displayed the same traits regardless of the target selected.  The predominant targeting for American lone-wolf terrorists is federal government facilities and personnel and law enforcement personnel at around 30%  (Richards, et al., 2019; Hamm & Spaaji, 2017).  Overall, targeting selection for lone-wolves is incredibly broad that is familiar with organized terrorism to act by bombing, hijacking, assassinations, kidnappings, armed assaults, and hostage-taking.

Attraction to Lone Wolf Strategy

US homegrown terrorists come from diverse educational, socioeconomic, ethnic, and family backgrounds that defy profiling.  It is impossible to build a demographic profile on U.S. lone wolves as a vast array of factors that drive individuals to violence, making it very difficult to conduct threat analysis (Alfaro-Gonzalez, et al., 2015). Jeffery Simon (2011) defines five categories of lone-wolves: 1) secular, 2) religious, 3) single-issue (abortion, environmental), 4) criminal and 5) idiosyncratic.  There are no ideological limitations to becoming a lone-wolf terrorist, the very ease of adopting a singular actor terrorist is appealing to many. The 2019 FBI report details that U.S. lone wolves come from all backgrounds, with 75 percent having some form of college education (Richards, et al., 2019).  Disturbingly, 37 percent of lone-wolf terrorists have served in the military, particularly the army at 53 percent (Richards, et al., 2019).  An American lone-wolf terrorist can be college-educated, from a military background, a religious background, and many others.  The concern is that such a view makes the assessment of U.S. lone wolves incredibly difficult to manage because it paints that anyone can be a terrorist.

The U.S. Government's inability to define and act an incoherent matter against lone wolves provides additional attractiveness to adopting a strategy of lone-wolf terrorism. The U.S. federal government has approached lone-wolf terrorism in a scattered response, mainly to combat Islamic extremism with programs that focus on prevention and a community-based approach (Alfaro-Gonzalez, 2015).  The U.S government has no centralized task force that directly deals with lone-wolves, unlike internal efforts against organized terrorism (Alfaro-Gonzalez, 2015). The absence of centralized leadership within law enforcement has helped embolden lone-wolf terrorists to continue plotting and embracing radicalization. American lone-wolves are somewhat aware of this disconnect between government rhetoric on the threat of lone-wolf terrorism and actionable policy against lone-wolves has stumbled for the past decade (Alfaro-Gonzalez, 2015; Hamm & Spaaji, 2017).  While government ineptitude is not a primary driving factor towards attraction, it is a secondary concern that influences those that are considering adopting a lone-wolf strategy over joining a group.

Flaws of Lone Wolf Strategy

Lone-wolf terrorists are prone to mismanaging their operational security that exposes intent before an event that potentially thwarts them if acted on early.  Eighty-three percent of lone wolves exhibit previous hostile or aggressive behavior, and 96 percent produce writings or videos intended to be viewed by others (Richards, et al., 2019). Lone wolves have some level of social contact with family members or peers, in which 25 percent of the time, at least one bystander knew about research, planning, or preparation for an attack (Richards, et al., 2019).  As part of an attack, the need for publicity is challenging, keeping planning an attack a secret in about 85% of incidents (Hamm & Spaaij, 2017). Alfaro-Gonzalez (2015) analyzes that U.S. law enforcement needs to adopt more community-based approaches to defeating lone-wolves since most lone-wolves inform close relatives or friends during the radicalization process.  The difficulty of community-based policing that many bystanders in the community can be sympathetic to the lone-wolf ideology in question.  While community-based approaches is the best idea available, there is a ceiling of effectiveness if the law enforcement community cannot make inroads of trust.  The balance between needing publicity and maintaining secrecy is the main vulnerability in detecting lone-wolves early on.  More robust online surveillance and community-based efforts that can trust law enforcement agencies are the way to discover these flaws promptly.

Leveraging Internet Infrastructure in Lone Wolf Terrorism

The maturity of internet infrastructure and applications has enabled better utilization of lone-wolf terrorism strategies as the internet has become more accessible and social media prevalence enables online community creation.  Lone-wolves are becoming more innovative and creative with how to use the internet for terrorism. As seen with the 2019 Christchurch mosque, shootings showcase novel creativity in utilizing social media live feeding the incident for maximum publicity pre-attack intent (Hoffman, 2019).  Social media is creating virtual communities of hatred that have become the cornerstone for online radicalization and planning. A new generation has become comfortable with the utility of the internet, as seen with Faisal Shahzad and Major Nidel Hasan (Post, et al., 2014).  The new generation seeks belonging and significance with online communities that generate self-radicalization. Terrorist organizations find that decentralized organizations can be met through the medium of the internet as counterterrorism strategies have put immense pressure on formal organizational structure.  Radicalization and operational planning are increasingly taking place entirely online, utilizing encrypted applications or social media that challenge existing counterterrorism strategies better to avoid detection (Gartenstein-Ross & Barr, 2016).

There is a correlation between greater internet connectivity within democracies, notably with less wealthy and weak democracies, and domestic terrorism that amplify preexisting political, societal, and economic tensions (Hunter, et al., 2019). Hunter (2019) notes that more access to the internet is not the primary cause of domestic terrorism; however, greater internet access increases potential radicalization, intensify existing tensions, more opportunity to recruit, and the avenue of self-radicalization.  Digital infrastructure is more robust within democracies defined by social media and end-to-end encryption platforms. The internet challenges traditional ways of radicalization and operational planning no longer apply in a digital world where individuals and networks can gather online to conduct all their activities without physically meeting.  The freedom of information that the internet affords, while largely beneficial, has negative consequences as the primer avenue of lone-wolf radicalization in democracies.

Louis Beam’s idea to utilize the internet for radicalization, planning, and executing lone-wolf terrorists was ahead of his time.  The internet needed to become more mature, more robust, and more accessible to become the convenient platform today for lone-wolf terrorists.  The new organization model of terrorism is increasingly dominated by lone-wolf actors communicating online (Gartenstein-Ross & Barr, 2016). The maturity of the internet and social media has allowed lone-wolves to adapt to the internet as part of their strategy to achieve bigger goals (Berger, 2019). While white supremacists were the early movers and adopters of leveraging the internet to facilitate their means to an end, every lone-wolf of any ideology can take it and run with the basic playbook Louis Beam laid out nearly 30 years ago.  The United States has seen the results of Beam’s writings as religious extremists, radical environmentalists, anarchists, and more have seen the value of the internet for their purpose as much as Beam saw the internet’s potential back in 1992.

Conclusion

            American lone-wolf terrorism is a complex issue that the internet has empowered as a means to escape the purview of law enforcement and counterterrorism agencies.  While modern American lone-wolf terrorism is rooted in white supremacist groups, any ideology seeking political change within the United States has adopted the idea of leaderless resistance to carry out attacks on American soil.  As U.S. counterterrorism efforts have been increasingly successful against organized terrorism, there has also been increasing effectiveness of violent lone-wolf attacks that the U.S. government has slowly realized and act accordingly to the threat.  The significant flaw of lone wolves is their need to publicize their attacks beforehand despite wanting to keep their planning a secret, which can be the basis of effective counterterrorism efforts.  While American white supremacists were early to spot the significance of the internet's utility for their actions, their vision could not be realized until further technological advances made the internet more robust, faster, and more applications.  The internet is here to stay, and so are lone-wolves gravitating towards online communications and communities to become the latest wave of homegrown, domestic terrorists.


References

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