 |
| The Obvious First Strike: Tomahawk Cruise Missiles |
Everything in the region in the past few months has slowly put the pieces into place for a limited involvement against the Syrian government, but the question has been where and what equipment would be involved. Looking at what has been placed into the region in the past year and more importantly over the summer gives a glaring look at what places would be doing the most work.
Assets in the region:
United States
- Four US destroyers - USS Gravely, USS Ramage, USS Barry and USS Mahan - are in the eastern Mediterranean, equipped with approximately 360 cruise missiles.
- Airbases at Incirlik and Izmir in Turkey, and in Jordan. Official US fighter squadrons are only in Jordan at the moment.
- Two aircraft carriers - USS Nimitz and USS Harry S Truman are in the wider region.
- The Royal Navy's response force task group- which includes helicopter carrier HMS Illustrious and frigates HMS Montrose and HMS Westminster - is in the region on a previously-scheduled deployment.
- RAF Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus.
- A British Trafalgar class submarine equipped with cruise missiles.
- French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is currently in Toulon in the western Mediterranean.
- French Raffale and Mirage aircraft can also operate from Al-Dhahra airbase in the UAE.
 |
| US-British-French Assets in the Region |
People have said that we may do a no-fly zone; however, this option realistically is not plausible at the moment due to the lack of assets close by to begin sustained SEAD (supression of enemy air defenses) operations as readily. If this was possible, the USS Harry S Truman Carrier Strike Group would likely be in the Mediterranean Sea at the moment instead of lurking in the Gulf of Aden. However, dropping down to one carrier in the Persian Gulf is against US naval strategy just in case any conflict in the Middle East expands to involve more players. It would behoove to think then that a possible SEAD role would fall to NATO partners instead of a predominant US role in establishing a no-fly zone similar to what happened in Libya back in 2011.
It is interesting to see the various third-parties and regional nations, such as Turkey, place their response as the US heats up the call for action. The last 24 hours has seen the United Kingdom to be the official pusher for a UN resolution to start limited military action in Syria. At least how the resolution to the Security Council is worded to blunt the Russian and Chinese vetoes. This is the beginning of the 'coalition of the willing' from the West, which will begin heavy NATO involvement no less.
Meanwhile, "I think international law is clear on this. International law says that military action must be taken after a decision by the Security Council," Lakhdar Brahimi, UN-Arab League special envoy for Syria, told reporters in Geneva. This may paint the Arab League into a corner from not intervening.
While in Turkey, which has been one of the most vocal critics on the Syrian conflict, maybe forced not to intervene. Last year, Turkey’s Parliament passed a government motion for a one-year mandate authorizing the military to use ground troops for cross-border military operations into Syria that began in October 2012. However, opposition parties are lining up against the AKP to kill renewing that measure. “Their taking the Parliament’s will for granted is disrespect of the AKP [the Justice and Development Party] to the high Parliament and the AKP deputies,” Loğoğlu said in a written statement, warning that the AKP should not forget “the March 1, 2003, motion” experience.
Now, this is important because Turkey back in 2003 denied an expanded US ground presence for the Iraq War which strained US-Turkey relations for many years afterwards. There is no support from the Turkish government at large to see a US ground force in Turkey, which already limits what would be coming to Incirlik Air Base. Too much in Turkey hinges on working with NATO to open up Incirlik AB which in the foreseeable future just maintaining the Patriot missiles batteries and intelligence surveillance operations from this strategic air base in the region.
Now, what is more interesting is the deployment of US forces in Jordan over the summer. Back in June, 5000 US personnel were involved in an annual, Jordanian-led military exercise called Eager Lion. Involving 19 countries and some 8000 troops, Eager Lion as Maj. Gen. Awni al Adwan of the Jordanian army and chairman of the joint task force described, "Issues such as integrated air and missile defense and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to address current and future conflicts’ security issues." Afterwards, the US left behind a squadron of F-16s and a Patriot missile battery.
It's interesting to see that the forces in Jordan are in a more convenient strike position than any possible deployment of forces in Turkey, dealing with a more cooperative Jordanian government to keep options open and not be caught by surprise by Turkey not willing to expand the scope of Syrian intervention if the limited strikes failed. In the past year, it is interesting to note how the Israelis have been making occasional strikes into Syria which probably was with some sort of air-to-surface
 |
| F-16 launching a AGM-158 JSSM |
However, Jordan has said that their nation would not be used a platform for any operation against Syria, as stated by information minister Mohammad Moman has said today that the country will "not be a launching pad for any military action against Syria."
He said Jordan preferred a "diplomatic solution to the Syrian crisis" and called on the international community to "consolidate efforts in that regard."
Regional politics and sensitivities of having another ground way have forced a limited hand back in Washington. If the UN resolution fails, it does indeed falls back to having a NATO backing to see an advancement of the limited strike option. The world's public is rightly skeptical on getting the evidence right on proving the Syrian government used chemical weapons. I for one should note that they should have pulled the 'humanitarian' card awhile go if they were going to play that move. The United States and the Obama Administration does not need another Iraq, which is why toppling Assad isn't possible and arming the Syrian rebels is difficult. This is a face saving measure and to send a message to everyone else that possesses chemical weapons, "Don't even think about using them, period... or get fucked."
As the UN Security Meets, State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf said, "We see no avenue forward, given continued Russian opposition, to any meaningful council action on Syria." Even adding further insult to injury towards Russia, she continued, "Today we've heard nothing different from the Russians in the meeting than we've heard for months and even years."
Meanwhile, the White House is spilling quite a few details of what the military strike option as White House Press Secretary, Jay Carney fielded questions amongst a frenzied White House press.
"Having said that, we’re primarily considering two sets of Tomahawk missile strikes (between 8 and 11) launched by the USS Mahan and the USS Gravely against a set of military bases in the Syrian desert, including but not limited to… [ruffles some papers]… and let me see if I can get these names right: the Marj Ruhayyil Military Airbase, Al-Nayrab Military Airbase, the Suwayda Army Base, the Marj al-Sultan Military Heliport… Wait, no scratch that. My bad. The heliport is not under consideration. I mean, it may or may not be under consideration. Let’s see, where were we? Oh, also the Shayrat Military Airbase and the Khalkh… you know what, I’m not even going to try to pronounce that one. We’ve put together a list of the potential targets that you can pick up on your way out, along with geographical coordinates and correct spelling, and so on, just to facilitate things."
As the reporters grabbed for details, Carney gave more details... I'm not sure how this is a productive military planning, but it reveals the huge measure to the Syrian government the heads ups...
"Again, we’re not in the business of revealing sensitive information, Judy. All I can tell you is that we may or may not strike the potential targets during the hours of 21:00 and 23:00 on Friday August 30th, and again between 15:00 and 17:00 on Saturday the 31st. Please note that we’re talking about the Damascus time zone, which is GMT +2. I know that can be confusing. Anyway, after the strikes which may or may not take place between those hours, we may or may not launch a surprise follow-up attack again the following week on Monday morning between 10:30-11:00 am, depending on the situation on the ground."
In return, John McCain on "Fox and Friends" commented the leaks, "But all of these leaks, when strikes are going to take place, where, what’s going to be used, if I were Bashar Assad, I think I would declare tomorrow a snow day and keep everybody from work. This is crazy. These leaks are just crazy.”
In Syria, the public took to heart of the leaks as a Reuters reported stated in Damascus, "At grocery stores, shoppers loaded up on bread, dried goods and canned foods, fearing they may face shortages if a strike hits the city. The items most in demand were batteries and water. Nearby, a nurse idled in a clinic - empty as nearly no one showed up for their appointments on Wednesday - and raised the question on the mind of so many locals."
At the end of the day, the United Nations will just sit and watch the firework show erupt in the Middle East once again as the United States does what it wants to do in a conflict that it is showing up to a quite a bit late. For being diplomatic... the Obama Administration has politely told Russia to "Fuck off." as seen what is coming from the State Department. It will definitely be an interesting next week for sure. The details are plain to see on what is going to happen, and even when it is happening. This is a message sending missile strike and nothing more, land-based aircraft strikes are hampered by various regional politics in neighboring countries where there is a US presence, thus the sea-based Tomahawk cruise missile system strikes happening in the coming days.
Related news links:
BBC - Syria crisis: Where key countries stand.
BBC - Gauging Russia's reaction to a Syrian Strike
The Guardian - Israeli Intelligence Intercepts Syrian regime talk about chemical attack
Reuters - Obama's Politcal Cost on Syrian Action
Reuters - US Prepares to Strike, Syria prepares.
Hurriyet Daily News - Turkish Government Alone in Intervention Motion
Hurriyet Daily News - Turkey Plans Concrete Goals on Syria
Politico - John McCain Appalled by Syrian Operation Leaks
No comments:
Post a Comment